Top Israeli think tank issues rare warning. Its last came months before Oct. 7

Linda Dayan reports in Haaretz on 15  September 2026:

A leading Israeli think tank issued a rare strategic alert on Tuesday warning that Jewish terrorism against Palestinians in the West Bank threatens Israel’s security, international standing and functionality as a state.

The Institute for National Security Studies stated that settler violence, which has spiked in both frequency and severity since Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, “has evolved from a local enforcement problem into a distinct strategic threat to the State of Israel and its democratic character.”

This is only the second strategic alert the institute has ever issued. The first came in March 2023, amid the social and political crisis over the judicial overhaul, seven months before the October 7 attack.

The newly released report said that poor law enforcement against violent settlers, the weakness of the judicial system, and a lack of political backing for the military and police in acting against perpetrators are “creating a reality marked by lawlessness, non-recognition of state institutions, and the loss of the state’s monopoly on the use of force.”

The report further says that “the lack of a decisive Israeli response constitutes evidence that it is a policy directed from above.”  The report states that the lack of enforcement and political enabling of such violence suggests that there is approval for the policy of pressuring Palestinian communities in Area C, under Israeli military control, and demolishing and igniting their homes, to drive them out of the territory and prepare it for Israeli sovereignty.

“The central failure is this conduct, which constitutes a moral stain,” it reads. “Beyond that, it suffers from a disregard for the chain of reactions and accompanying consequences, both in the Israeli domestic arena and in the international arena.”

The think tank, which has close ties to Israel’s defense establishment, paints a grave picture. “Israel cannot regard itself as a state governed by the rule of law, with a nonpartisan military and a system characterized by shared responsibility and mutual backing among its sub-systems (the military, police, Shin Bet, and government), while simultaneously acquiescing to selective enforcement, standing idly by, and blurring the facts,” the report reads.

“When ideologically motivated violence enjoys de facto immunity or political backing, command authority, military discipline, and the state’s monopoly on the use of force are eroded.”

A destabilizing cycle

Dr. Tammy Caner, a senior researcher in the INSS’ Law and National Security Program, told Haaretz that the decision to issue this alert was not the result of rising settler terror alone.

“We were able to see a concrete strategic risk taking shape well beyond the violence itself,” she said, pointing to the combination of settler violence, weak enforcement, declining political support for Israel’s security and law enforcement agencies, changes in governance on the ground in the West Bank, and growing pressure on Palestinian communities and the Palestinian Authority.

She pointed to a cycle outlined in the report, in which Jewish terrorism destabilizes the area and fuels Palestinian motivation to engage in violence, prompting an Israeli military response that further increases friction between the communities and leads to additional casualties. As a result, the IDF must divert forces from other fronts, leaving Israel more vulnerable.

The report warns that the violence can reach far beyond the separation barrier: “The escalation could also spill over into East Jerusalem, particularly the Temple Mount … as well as into Israel itself and other arenas,” it states. “It could also provide Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Shiite militias, Turkey, and Qatar with further opportunities and incentives to act against Israel through a range of means.”

It’s not just hostile actors who have taken notice, as evidenced by the sanctions placed on Israeli settlements by European states in recent weeks. The report states that “Israel’s portrayal as an aggressive, oppressive, and racist state” undermines its legitimacy to act forcefully, damages its regional and international standing and risks diplomatic isolation.

Caner added that the phenomenon has far-reaching societal implications as well. “Selective enforcement usually doesn’t remain geographically contained. Once violence becomes politically legitimate, then the authority of the police, the military and the courts is weakened.”

Why, then, does the government allow this process to continue? “I don’t think we can claim that the government as a whole supports attacks on Palestinians,” she said. “But I do think that parts of the political system support the broader policy of expanding Israeli control in Area C specifically and throughout the West Bank,” while preventing Palestinian communities from expanding to deter the establishment of a Palestinian state. Those same outcomes, she said, could also be achieved through violence.

“This is silent support – not for the violence, but for the outcome itself.” She added that government support for this policy enables the violence through its political messaging, attempts to minimize the scale or severity of the phenomenon, and refusal to condemn it unequivocally.

Another unheeded warning?

This is the second strategic alert the institute has issued. The first came in March 2023, several months before the Hamas October 7 attack. In that strategic alert, the INSS warned that the legislative blitz undertaken by the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was generating unprecedented internal strife within Israeli society and intensifying “the security, geopolitical and economic threats facing it.” The message went unheeded.

Caner said that she does not know whether the authorities will listen, but “What I do know is the cost of waiting is increasing.” She reiterated that this is about more than settler terrorism, but speaks to Israel’s crumbling monopoly on the use of force and its ability to enforce the law – without political interference, and regardless of whom the victim or perpetrator is.

The report therefore warns of “a threat to Israel’s very ability to govern and function.” It adds that “as history teaches us, democracies that fail to restrain radical forces within them do not survive.”

The report suggests “essential and immediate courses of action.”

These include thorough and impartial investigations and enforcement of the law against those responsible for settler violence; the establishment of an interagency task force comprising representatives from the police, Shin Bet, the military, Civil Administration and legal system; and a clear delineation of the roles and authority of civilian defense squads.

The report also recommends evacuating illegal outposts in Area B, enforcing the prohibition on settlements in Area A, preventing the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, confiscating illegal weapons and vehicles, and taking other measures to curb the violence.

It also proposes steps to restore Israel’s international credibility. “Alongside enforcement, there is a need for clear political condemnation, transparency regarding the measures taken and their outcomes, proactive dialogue with allies and international actors, and action to address the entities and infrastructures fueling the violence,” it says.

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