What I Learned in Beirut About How to Halt an Israel-Hezbollah War
Nothing can really prevent both Israel and Hezbollah from going to war if they want to, even if it would trigger a catastrophic, regional conflict.
A visit to Lebanon this past week, I had hoped, would help me better understand the prospects of war between Israel and Hezbollah. But it didn’t. I am no less unsure today than I was months ago. The situation is so fluid along the Israel-Lebanon borders that it has frustrated even the most seasoned analysts and practitioners.
But here’s what I did learn from my meetings with Lebanese officials and foreign diplomats in Beirut: Nobody believes that the dangerous dynamic between Israel and Hezbollah could be pacified without a cease-fire in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won’t admit it publicly, but even he must recognize that.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has made that point clear in his speeches, and there is little reason to doubt his words. The group has demonstrated its commitment to aiding Hamas (though whether it has succeeded in doing so is doubtful) by continuing to fire rockets against Israel despite suffering significant casualties among its senior military ranks.
Yet even if a ceasefire in Gaza is reached, and Hezbollah terminates its operations, Israel may not accept the new status quo on its northern frontier. Some 60,000 Israelis have been evacuated from their homes along the northern border since soon after the October 7 Hamas attack, with no path to return until their safety is fully assured.
But going to war against Hezbollah to address the perceived threat it poses will come with an extraordinarily heavy and unprecedented price for both Israel and Lebanon. This approach has backfired in the past, and most likely will again today.
Hezbollah boasts capabilities far more powerful than those of Hamas, and its ability to regroup, given its control of the geography and population in southern Lebanon, along with its uninterrupted access to assistance from Iran, is impressive and proven, if history is any guide. Hezbollah also won’t fight alone. The Houthis, Iraqi militias, and possibly Iran will lend their support. So, by going after Hezbollah, Israel could trigger a catastrophic, regional conflict. The best it can do is temporarily degrade Hezbollah but at a very high cost.