Based on the lack of aid and the number of people reported to be in the area, FEWS NET concluded that “it is highly likely that the food consumption and acute malnutrition thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5) have now been surpassed.” The organization estimated that absent any change of Israeli policy, they predict that “non-trauma mortality levels will pass the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold between January and March 2025, with at least 2-15 people dying per day.” The accepted threshold for famine would be two or more deaths a day per 10,000 people.
FEWS Net has been monitoring the humanitarian situation in Gaza since Israel’s attack began.
False dispute
The day after the report was published, the U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Jack Lew, publicly denounced the report in a tweet. He claimed that FEWSNET’s report was “relying on inaccurate data” and that “it is irresponsible to issue a report like this.”
The basis of his objection was the number of civilians currently in northern Gaza. The FEWS NET report included November assessments that estimated the population was up to 75,000. In his complaint, Lew cited more recent figures, combining COGAT’s estimate of 5,000-9,000 and UNRWA’s estimate of 7,000-15,000. Lew wrote that “it is now apparent that the civilian population in that part of Gaza is in the range of 7,000-15,000, not 65,000 – 75,000 which is the basis of this report.” To Lew, the use of November figures in the report undermines the report’s conclusions about a current famine in northern Gaza.
However, this complaint would only resonate with someone who has not actually read the report, which totals just three pages. While the report did cite the higher, earlier figures, to say this was the “basis of this report” would be completely false. The sentence after FEWS NET cited OCHA’s November figures, and the report cited UNRWA’s smaller figures from December:
More recent satellite-derived imagery suggests thousands of people evacuated in early December, 1 and efforts are underway to update the estimated size of the remaining population; an update from the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) on December 22 suggests the population may be as low as 10,000-15,000
The citation is clear that it is including the lower end of the numbers in their assessment:The range of the estimated daily number of deaths (2-15 deaths per day, applying the crude death rate threshold for Famine of 2 deaths/10,000/day) captures the lowest possible base population for a Famine (IPC Phase 5) classification on the low end (10,000 people), and the maximum estimated base population (75,000 people) on the high end.