Salafist challenge to Hamas

In this Thursday, Aug. 22, 2013 photo, Palestinian members from Youth Salafists chant slogans while waving their black flags in Rafah Refugee Camp, southern Gaza Strip. Photo AP

Who Is Behind Recent Rocket Fire Out of Gaza?

Possibility that next threat to Israel could come from Islamic State affiliates

By Robert Swift, The Media Line
June 08, 2015

The recent spate of rocket attacks and Israeli airstrikes in response has people once again speculating about when the next war in the region will be. But it appears to be an emerging belief that the munitions fired from the Gaza Strip were likely to have been more of an internal Palestinian spat than a serious threat towards Israel.

Fears that the violence of last summer’s 52-day Operation Protective Edge will be repeated are already being articulated but this scenario may be less likely than it first appears. Only two months ago, concern that a renewed conflict with Lebanon-based Hizbullah was imminent was a frequent topic for discussion. At the time, Mario Abou Zeid of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told The Media Line that Hizbullah had no desire for a conflict with Israel because it was being stretched to the limits by its deployment alongside Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s forces and is taking heavy casualties. Subsequently, comments by Hizbullah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah that his organization faced an existential threat from the Islamic State (ISIS) and his call for people to support Hizbullah appeared to have borne out Abou Zeid’s analysis.

Similarly, it is likely that Hamas, too, is unwilling to seek a conflict with Israel for the time being. While Hamas could renew the fight with Israel, it wouldn’t want to, Yoram Schweitzer, head of research into terrorism and counter-terrorism at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told The Media Line. “They are ready, but not as ready as they were last summer – they are in the middle of re-arming.” Schweitzer also pointed out that the people of Gaza would not welcome another round of conflict less than a year after Operation Protective Edge, which killed more than 2,100 Palestinians and 71 Israelis.

Yoram Schweitzer

The most recent attacks against Israel have been attributed to a Salafist group calling itself Omar’s Brigade, a previously obscure organization. A number of terrorist groups operate in the Gaza Strip outside of Hamas’ control, the most prominent among them being Islamic Jihad, a group who, like Hamas, receives support from Iran.

The term “Salafists” has been used to describe other actors in Gaza who ascribe to a pan-Sunni Jihadist ideology, though these groups are not a homogenous faction. Considered to be more religiously conservative than Hamas preachers, Salafist ideologues seek to implement sharia (strict Islamic religious) law in Gaza, and are less focused on Palestinian nationalism. However, the exact strength of these groups has been disputed with figures varying between 400 and 4,000 fighters.

In the past such groups appeared to be loosely linked to Al-Qa’ida, but with the rise in the prestige of the Islamic State (ISIS), Salafists have been increasingly calling themselves Islamic State allies. Schweitzer explained that they would like to have ties to ISIS because of the prestige ISIS has developed through its conquest of tens of thousands of square metres of Middle Eastern land – a symbol of identity and defiance for the Salafists. However, Schweitzer continued, “this doesn’t mean that ISIS has solid roads into Gaza.”

It remains unclear to what extent, if any, the rivalry between ISIS and Al-Qa’ida, which has led to open combat in parts of Syria, has played out in Gaza.

“Ever since Hamas became the government in Gaza, it has constantly faced competition (and) challenges from smaller groups,” Avraham Sela, a professor of international relations at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University, told The Media Line. Such groups are often backed by “outside patrons” and at times come to blows with Hamas over money, the right to bear arms, the prerogative to attack Israel and the arrest of their members by Hamas-controlled Gazan authorities.

Causing trouble by launching rockets at Israel is an asymmetric tactic on the part of smaller Gazan groups to put pressure on the much more powerful Hamas, in large part because it is Israeli policy to hold Hamas responsible for any act of terror emanating from Gaza pursuant to Hamas’ role as ruler of the enclave.

It is a quarrel of this nature which has led to the most recent rocket attacks against Israel, following the death of a Salafist and the arrest of others at the hands of Hamas.

Salafists in Gaza fly ISIS ( Islamic State) flags during a protest against satirical French weekly magazine ‘Charlie Hebdo’ outside the French Cultural Centre in Gaza City. Photo by Reuters.

The various non-Hamas groups might be credible in their manpower and in their efforts, but they do not pose a real threat to the regime, Schweitzer believes. “Hamas’ hegemony in Gaza is not in question (although) they might have to enforce their will,” from time to time, he said.

Which brings Israelis back to “the next war.” With the meteoric rise to prominence of ISIS in the last eighteen months the possibility of its increasing influence in Gaza can’t be ruled out despite the fact that Al-Qa’ida before them was never able to maintain traction among Palestinians.

Salafists in the Gaza Strip are not currently recognized by ISIS due to a lack of unity – a prerequisite for membership, according to Schweitzer. If they had more advanced weapons with longer ranges that could reach Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, it would be a different story. But in order to receive weapons from ISIS, they would most likely have to be smuggled from Libya, through the Sinai and into Gaza, running a high risk of discovery as the arms shipments passed the Egyptian military, Israeli intelligence and Hamas security forces.

A conflict in Gaza without the inclusion of Hamas is not without precedent. In 2012, during Operation Returning Echo, Israel fought a short campaign against Islamic Jihad and other smaller groups.

Until Hamas feels that they are sufficiently rearmed, such a scenario could be the answer to the question, “Who is firing rockets into Israel?”