Qatar’s calculated plan for Gaza will crush far right Israeli dreams of war and displacement

Palestinians returning to northern Gaza, 27 January 2025

Chaim Levinson writes in Haaretz on 28 January 2025:

The disconnect between Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s vision for the Gaza Strip and the reality on the ground is staggering. As events unfold before our eyes, it seems that either Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is orchestrating an elaborate scam targeting the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and the UAE, or Smotrich is about to suffer a political humiliation of historic proportions.

Speaking at a faction meeting on Monday, Smotrich described a grandiose plan for Gaza that felt entirely divorced from current events. “Now we must appoint an offensive IDF chief who will fully, without prevarication or hesitation, carry out the clear task assigned to him by the political leadership: conquering Gaza and preventing Hamas from leveraging humanitarian aid, in order to defeat Hamas and win the war,” he declared.

Smotrich added that he was working with Netanyahu and the security cabinet to prepare an operational plan to ensure “President Trump’s vision” for the region becomes a reality. Smotrich dismissed opposition from Egypt and Jordan, citing U.S. President Donald Trump’s ability “push through his agenda with Colombia despite its objections to deporting migrants.”

If Smotrich and his party weren’t essential components of Netanyahu’s coalition, which lacks a majority without them, his statements might be dismissed as farcical. Unfortunately, they represent a tragic reality.

Netanyahu’s voice on policy was notably absent on Monday. He spent the day in court, with the remainder of his time consumed by his ailments. The prime minister, still weak following surgery in December, is struggling to recover.  Visitors to his office describe a fatigued man who frequently shifts positions, unable to get the proper rest his condition demands. The little energy he musters is focused on the most pressing issues, leaving no capacity for softening conversations with a finance minister eager to withdraw from the coalition.

Smotrich’s detachment from reality was particularly evident in the case of hostage Arbel Yehoud. Qatar has taken charge of managing the situation, with Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Thani asserting his authority in an interview with Israel’s Channel 12 on Monday.

Al-Thani said little of substance; the interview itself was the message. While the exact nature of Qatar’s leverage over Hamas remains unclear, its influence is undeniable. In Washington, Qatar’s standing has grown significantly. They are the new “Jewish lobby” of yesteryear – well-connected and deeply entrenched. “Did Trump’s envoy do business with Qatar while I wasn’t paying attention?” lamented far-right pundit Shimon Riklin.

The “negotiations” over Yehoud were inflated by Netanyahu’s office as a propaganda effort to project “firm resolve.” In reality, Qatar was eager to facilitate the process, and there was little actual negotiation or need for the firm, decisive, Zionist, nationalistic stance that Israeli leaders claimed to have demonstrated.  Qatar consistently reassured all parties that everything was under control. There was no need to involve the United States, and Qatar even took the initiative to arrange an additional release of hostages beyond the original agreement.

For Netanyahu, this can be spun as a political success. For Hamas, it is equally a success. In Israel, footage of Palestinian prisoner celebrations in Gaza is conspicuously absent from media coverage, but on Al Jazeera, it is broadcast repeatedly.

These are powerful demonstrations of Hamas’ psychological dominance, and they are seizing the opportunity to produce more victory images as they compete for control of the Gaza war narrative.

Strategically, however, the idea of resuming the war in Gaza is little more than a fantasy. On Monday, Channel 14, a far-right Israeli outlet, proposed a “scenario” in which Netanyahu might appeal to Trump, suggesting that since Trump has four years to secure peace with Saudi Arabia, he should grant Netanyahu four months to “finish the job” in Gaza – this time with the “weapons” and “backing” that the Biden administration allegedly withheld.

While it’s a compelling spin for Netanyahu’s base, the reality is far less straightforward. A million Gazans are moving back to the north. Displacing them in the first place was only possible in the immediate aftermath of October 7. Doing so again to accommodate Smotrich’s dreams of voluntary emigration to Egypt is entirely unrealistic.

Israel’s political and military circles are increasingly speculating about Qatar’s endgame in Gaza. Ultimately, Qatar’s involvement appears to be driven less by humanitarian concerns and more by calculated economic and strategic interests.

Israeli officials estimate that Qatar’s ambition is to establish a colony in the Middle East. Leveraging its ties with the Trump administration and playing its regional cards strategically, Qatar seems intent on turning Gaza into its Mediterranean outpost.

While Gaza currently resembles a structure ravaged by urban renewal, an earthquake, and a fire all at once, it holds potential as a future asset. It boasts a small offshore gas field begging for development, long-standing plans for a seaport and a potential hub for the small yet ambitious Qatar.

Unlike Smotrich’s ungrounded visions, Qatar’s approach is methodical and rooted in long-term strategy, and it is devoting significant resources to ensure the success of its Gaza project.

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