JJP lobbies the Foreign Office, the National Security Adviser, and Embassies on the apparent Israeli Gaza killing quota

On 9 August, JJP wrote to the Foreign Office, the National Security Adviser, the EU Ambassador to the UK, the Ambassadors of all the EU member states, and Canada. We exposed what appears to be an Israeli daily killing quota in Gaza and an intention to keep daily injuries at a high level.
Our letters to the FCDO and the EU Ambassador

Letter to the FCDO

Stephen Hickey 9 August 2025

Director Middle East & North Africa

Dear Mr. Hickey,

We are writing further to our letter of 28 July.

It is now becoming evident that the very high Palestinian casualty rate in Gaza is not only the result of disproportionate and indiscriminate Israeli attacks, but also of a deliberate, cold-blooded strategy of keeping the killing and injury rates very high. For the past six weeks, from 26 June, at least 90 per day have been killed and more than 300 a day injured.

There are three reasons leading us to think these rates have been deliberate.

First was the “verbal agreement” between EU High Representative Kallas and Israeli Foreign Minister Saar, announced on 10 July, five days before the EU Council of Ministers met to consider the EEAS report on Israel’s serial breaches of the Human Rights part of Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. The “verbal agreement” promised undefined improvements in aid delivery to Gaza and reduction in casualties at aid sites, in return for the EU not voting to suspend parts of the Agreement.

Deaths and injuries among people trying to access aid both fell considerably in that week, in fact by about 40% compared to the average rate in the first six weeks of GHF operation. The Council duly decided not to vote. However, deaths in Gaza from all other causes increased considerably, so that all deaths in Gaza actually increased by about 19% compared to the previous six weeks.

Second is the “tactical pauses” in Israeli attacks in a large swathe of Gaza from 10am to 8pm, announced on 27 July. That should logically have led to a significant fall in casualties in the whole of Gaza. In fact, casualties in the whole of Gaza have continued at their previous high level. Deaths and injuries averaged 91 and 460 per day in the week ending 30 July and jumped to 104 and 640 per day in the week ending 6 August. Clearly, either Israel never implemented the “tactical pauses” or it increased the attacks in the rest of Gaza to compensate for the pauses.

Third is the pattern of killing and injury during the 10 weeks of GHF operations. There is a clear inverse relationship between killings while trying to access aid and all other killings since the fourth week of GHF operations, i.e. week c. 19 June. When one rises, the other falls, maintaining the total killed between 90 and 100. In the last recorded week, week c. 31 July, the rise in killings while accessing aid was much bigger than the fall in other killings, causing the sharp rise in total killed per day to 104.

There is also an inverse relationship between injuries in those two circumstances, but it is less clear and at different times in the period of GHF operations. It occurs in the first four weeks and again in the last two weeks. There doesn’t appear to be a quota, rather total

injured initially staying above 300 a day and then rising sharply along with the rise in killings while accessing aid.

Therefore, it looks very like Israel has a Gaza kill quota, killing, on average, between 90 and 100 Palestinians a day, and the intent to keep the injury rate high and rising. This is itself a grievous war crime and an aspect of the genocide Israel is committing. The two charts in our updated spreadsheet show the patterns.1

The motive for the strategy, as we concluded in our letter of 28 July, is to apply maximum, lethal pressure on the Palestinians to make them leave Gaza via the planned transit camp in Rafah before they “voluntarily migrate” to other countries. The quota’s apparent upper limit of 100 can be explained by the psychology of round numbers, whereby a little more than 100 appears to be much bigger than a little less. By this part of the strategy, Israel seeks to reduce criticism of its attacks.

In view of Israel’s continuing genocidal war on Gaza, including the Gaza kill quota we have identified, we urge the government to join with other willing governments to impose strong sanctions on Israel. They should include suspending the tariff-free status of all Israeli exports to the UK; immobilising any Israeli foreign exchange reserves held in the UK, as has been done to Russia; suspending all arms exports to Israel; and refusing entry to all Israeli government ministers and senior military officers.

The Israeli Security Cabinet’s decision last week to occupy Gaza City is yet another proof that this Israeli government will not be deterred by the international community’s criticism, however strong. Very strong sanctions will be necessary to compel Israel to change course.

If they are not forthcoming, Israel will ethnically cleanse Gaza and annex half of the West Bank. The consequences for the Palestinians would be devastating. The credibility of our governments’ commitment to international law would be badly eroded, perhaps fatally.

We urge you to take action now.

Arthur Goodman

Parliamentary and Diplomatic Officer

1. Our updated calculations spreadsheet based on the OCHA data is also attached to our email.

Letter to the EU Ambassador

His Excellency, Mr. Pedro Serrano 9 August 2025

Ambassador, Embassy of the European Union

Dear Ambassador Serrano,

We are writing further to our letter and annex of 27 July.

It is now becoming evident that the very high Palestinian casualty rate in Gaza is not only the result of disproportionate and indiscriminate Israeli attacks, but also of a deliberate, cold-blooded strategy of keeping the killing and injury rates very high. For the past six weeks, from 26 June, at least 90 per day have been killed and more than 300 a day injured.

There are three reasons that lead us to think these rates have been deliberate.

First was the “verbal agreement” between High Representative Kallas and Israeli Foreign Minister Saar, announced on 10 July, five days before the EU Council of Ministers met to consider the EEAS report on Israel’s serial breaches of the Human Rights part of Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. The “verbal agreement” promised undefined improvements in aid delivery to Gaza and reduction in casualties at aid sites, in return for the EU not voting to suspend parts of the Agreement.

Deaths and injuries among people trying to access aid both fell considerably in that week, in fact by about 40% compared to the average rate in the first six weeks of GHF operation. The Council duly decided not to vote. However, deaths in Gaza from all other causes increased considerably, so that all deaths in Gaza actually increased by about 19% compared to the previous six weeks.

Second is the “tactical pauses” in Israeli attacks in a large swathe of Gaza from 10am to 8pm, announced on 27 July. That should logically have led to a significant fall in casualties in the whole of Gaza. In fact, casualties in the whole of Gaza have continued at their previous high level. Deaths and injuries averaged 91 and 460 per day in the week ending 30 July and jumped to 104 and 640 per day in the week ending 6 August. Clearly, either Israel never implemented the “tactical pauses” or it increased the attacks in the rest of Gaza to compensate for the pauses.

Third is the pattern of killing and injury during the 10 weeks of GHF operations. There is a clear inverse relationship between killings while trying to access aid and all other killings since the fourth week of GHF operations, i.e. week c. 19 June. When one rises, the other falls, maintaining the total killed between 90 and 100. In the last recorded week, week c. 31 July, the rise in killings while accessing aid was much bigger than the fall in other killings, causing the sharp rise in total killed per day to 104.

There is also an inverse relationship between injuries in those two circumstances, but it is less clear and at different times in the period of GHF operations. It occurs in the first four weeks and again in the last two weeks. There doesn’t appear to be a quota, rather total injured initially staying above 300 a day and then rising sharply along with the rise in killings while accessing aid.

Therefore, it looks very like Israel has a Gaza kill quota, killing, on average, between 90 and 100 Palestinians a day, and the intent to keep the injury rate high and rising. This is itself a grievous breach of Article 2. The two charts in our updated spreadsheet show the patterns.1

The motive for the strategy, as we concluded in our letter of 27 July, is to apply maximum, lethal pressure on the Palestinians to make them leave Gaza via the planned transit camp in Rafah before they “voluntarily migrate” to other countries. The quota’s apparent upper limit of 100 can be explained by the psychology of round numbers, whereby a little more than 100 appears to be much bigger than a little less. By this part of the strategy, Israel seeks to reduce criticism of its attacks.

We support the High Representative in proposing to suspend Israel’s participation in part of the Horizon Program. It is extremely regrettable that the Council voted on 28 July against her proposal, despite the strong consensus within the EU that Israel had not enacted its part of the “verbal agreement”.

In view of Israel’s continuing, serious breaches of Article 2, including the Gaza kill quota we have identified, we urge you to ask the High Representative to make fresh suspension proposals, more far-reaching than her original, and to vote for them at an early emergency Council meeting.

The Israeli Security Cabinet’s decision last week to occupy Gaza City is yet another proof that this Israeli government will not be deterred by the international community’s criticism, however strong. Very strong sanctions will be necessary to compel Israel to change course.

Arthur Goodman

Parliamentary and Diplomatic Officer

1. Our updated calculations spreadsheet based on the OCHA data is also attached to our email.