Likud win brings ultra-Orthodox and pro-settler dominance

The article from Foreign Policy is followed by commentary from Noam Sheizaf.

Netanyahu and his new coalition. Photo by Gali Tibbon / AFP

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Grade A Pork-Barrel Politics

Israel’s coalition government is a shaky mess. But Bibi’s wheeling and dealing have cemented his hold on power.

By Neri Zilber, Foreign Policy
May 26, 2015

“You founded a circus of a government,” Israeli opposition leader Isaac Herzog thundered at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from the podium of the Knesset on May 14. Despite Herzog’s protestations, Netanyahu’s new government — his fourth — was officially sworn in last week along strict party lines, 61 votes to 59.

The incoming governing coalition has already been called many things; “a circus” is arguably the kindest. It is dominated by ultra-Orthodox and pro-settler groups, is expected to face mounting international pressure, and only enjoys a single-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The public view of Netanyahu’s political fortunes have once again undergone a dramatic swing: “King Bibi,” who won an overwhelming victory on election night after a last-ditch fear campaign, is gone. Thanks to a tortured coalition negotiation process, many are now putting forward the notion that Netanyahu is once again weak and can be toppled. It has almost become conventional wisdom that his government’s staying power will be measured in terms of months, not years.It has almost become conventional wisdom that his government’s staying power will be measured in terms of months, not years.

But Bibi’s coalition will likely prove more resilient than many expect. Indeed, both parliamentary procedure as well as politics should give pause to the thesis that Netanyahu’s grip on power is beholden to the whims of one or two coalition backbenchers. Of course, survival is distinct from governing. But when it comes to simply keeping his government intact, Netanyahu has several factors working in his favor.

To begin with, the previous Netanyahu government passed a little-noticed reform bill last year that made no-confidence votes extremely difficult to pull off. The new law demands that the opposition not only win a successful majority vote in order to unseat a government, but also that it assemble a majority consensus for an alternative government. Put simply, a no-confidence vote has to name a prime ministerial choice, has to have backing for a substitute majority coalition government, and only then can an existing government be toppled — in effect, replaced. In parliamentary legalese, the new rule is called “constructive no-confidence” — the idea being that it assists the durability of any government and decreases the number of frivolous no-confidence votes brought before the Knesset.

Cobbling together an alternative government to win such a vote currently looks impossible. The opposition itself – all 59 seats – is fractured, ranging from Arab-Israeli Islamists and anti-Zionists on one side, to hard-line right-wingers like former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on the other. Indeed, one senior Arab parliamentarian joked last week that Lieberman “has to resign from the opposition.” Defections from the governing coalition also look unlikely, given the ideological contradictions between, say, the two ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu’s government (Shas and United Torah Judaism) and the opposition’s Yesh Atid party, champions of the secular middle class. The belief that members of the pro-settler Jewish Home party would defect from the government because of dissatisfaction with Netanyahu, only to join forces with the opposition’s “Peace Now” Meretz party, is pure fantasy.

In any parliamentary democracy, being part of the ruling coalition brings with it ministerial positions and perks that are difficult to throw away. And Netanyahu lavishly handed out these sweeteners during the recent coalition formation process: The prime minister was seen to be extorted by those outside his Likud Party, cutting one bad deal after the next with his erstwhile partners — the appointment of Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, a 39-year-old neophyte from the Jewish Home party, being only his last and most exorbitant concession.

However, as one veteran Israeli journalist put it to me, the result is that all the coalition partners are “well fed.” It would be madness for them to surrender their hard-earned spoils for the uncertainty of another prime minister, and less satiating ministerial packages.

The new government can survive, but will it be able to govern? It will, going forward, assuredly lose votes in the Knesset — arguably a relief for many in the world concerned about its narrow, right-wing makeup. Key members of the government intend to pursue an agenda targeting the Supreme Court, the media, left-wing NGOs, as well as the controversial “nationality bill” aimed at giving primacy to Israel’s Jewish character.

Moshe Kahlon, the head of the centrist Kulanu party and the new finance minister, has already said that his party won’t support such legislation — a request Netanyahu reportedly agreed to. However, Kahlon does intend to pursue an ambitious socio-economic agenda focused on lowering the cost of living, including in the real estate, banking, and food sectors. The former Likud minister’s moderation relative to the rest of the government is a recipe for constant coalition crises — yet Kahlon, too, would face difficulties in toppling a right-wing government and joining forces with the Israeli left.

But it might never come to that, as the coalition may find that it needs Kahlon more than Kahlon needs the coalition. His reforms enjoy overwhelming support, not only among the Israeli public but also, probably, across the aisle. Former Labor Party Chairwoman Shelly Yachimovich has already publicly stated her intention to support much of the Netanyahu government’s economic agenda. “There are several ministerial appointments that are quite good,” Yachimovich wrote to her supporters, “and to be completely honest, with some of them I have a lot more in common than with many elements in the opposition.”

Yachimovich, who still commands a powerful following inside the Labor party and remains Herzog’s main competitor for the top spot, is likely not alone in her thinking. A surprising number of opposition parliamentarians may break ranks and vote for key pieces of the government’s economic legislation.

To be sure, this new Israeli government can, and likely will, cause a great deal of harm.To be sure, this new Israeli government can, and likely will, cause a great deal of harm. Ministers will trumpet one paranoid, ultranationalist initiative after another; settlements will likely grow; and the peace process will continue to be an empty vessel. Increased international pressure on Israel is expected, up to and perhaps including U.N. Security Council resolutions and further European boycott efforts. Because of this, some politicians — including Netanyahu — are holding to the idea that Herzog and his Zionist Union will join the coalition at some point in the future, creating a strong and more moderate national unity government.

While not out of the realm of possibility, this may be a bridge too far for Herzog. He is up for re-election as Labor chairman in the coming year. His base, it’s believed, simply doesn’t want to countenance “saving” Netanyahu from what the prime minister refers to as his “natural partners” on the right. “The era of the [centrist] fig leaf” for Netanyahu, one person close to Herzog recently told me, “is over.”

It is worth recalling that Netanyahu brought all this on himself. It was the prime minister who manufactured a coalition crisis last fall, dissolving his own government and heading to early elections — precisely because he was afraid of being outflanked on his right. After an election campaign in which he pandered to the worst impulses in Israeli society, Netanyahu is now reaping what he sowed. It will be a bumpy road ahead for his new government, with every vote carrying at least the implied threat of crisis. It will, indeed, be a circus. But Netanyahu will remain the ringmaster, and his government will most likely endure. Which is, for Netanyahu, probably the whole point.

Israel lurches right with formation of new government

Analysis: Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will maintain status quo abroad, push right-wing entrenchment at home

By Noam Sheizaf, Al Jazeera America
May 06, 2015

Despite his resounding victory at the polls in March, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took 42 days — the maximum allowed by law — to form his fourth government. Things got complicated in the last minute: Avigdor Lieberman, who resigned from his post as foreign minister earlier this week, decided not to join the government, forcing Netanyahu to settle for the narrowest possible coalition, consisting of 61 legislators out of the Knesset’s 120, and to pay a higher-than-anticipated price for his coalition partners.

The biggest winner of the negotiations was the right-wing Jewish Home party, which represents the interests of the settler movement. Its leader, Naftali Bennett, will be Israel’s new minister for education, and his deputy, Ayelet Shaked, will lead the Justice Ministry — a powerful position, which also heads the government’s committee for legislation, the forum where the coalition decides which bills to shelve and which to try to pass. The Jewish Home will also receive the deputy position in the Ministry of Defence, which oversees affairs in the West Bank.

This will be the most right-wing coalition in Israeli history. Not only is the government composed of conservative parties, but also those parties have become more hard-line than ever before. All of Likud’s senior leadership, starting with Netanyahu, is on record against the idea of a sovereign Palestinian state. To the right of Likud is the empowered Jewish Home party, with fewer legislators (eight, as opposed to 12 in the previous Knesset) but with Netanyahu completely dependent on every single one of them. The Jewish Home’s influence is likely to go beyond the Cabinet positions Bennett was able to secure.

After serving two years in the opposition, the two ultra-Orthodox parties are re-entering government with a vengeance. The coalition agreement signed by United Torah Judaism and Shas with Netanyahu cancels all legislative achievements by the secular Yesh Atid party in the previous government, from relaxing certain conversion laws to drafting some Orthodox into the Israeli military. (The ultra-Orthodox are exempt from military service and have full control over certain aspects of Jewish life. Both issues continue to be a major source of contention within the Israel body politic.) In return, Netanyahu will get his most trusted allies — two parties that will never break from the government over issues of war and peace, the settlements or the economy.

The relatively centrist element in the government will be the new Kulanu party, headed by former Likud minister Moshe Kachlon. Prominent members of Kulanu include Yoav Galant (the Israel Defense Forces southern command chief during Israel’s Operation Cast Lead in Gaza in 2008 and 2009) and Michael Oren (a former ambassador to the U.S.). While Kachlon, Galant and Oren do not rule out the idea of a Palestinian state, they blame the Palestinians for prolonging the Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza and are in no rush to change the status quo. Kachlon, who will become Israel’s new finance minister, is especially vague on the issue of the occupation; he is expected to focus entirely on the economy and probably will not confront the settlers, since he’ll likely need their support in his effort to bring down housing prices and reform the country’s banking system.

Constituencies hoping to see a change in policy toward the Palestinians are likely to be disappointed. Netanyahu and his partners can be expected to maintain and even deepen the trends in the West Bank — namely, more settlements and land appropriation. Israel will continue to depend on Palestinian security coordination while confronting the Palestinian Authority in the international arena. Almost nobody in Israel, particularly the country’s security establishment, wants to see the Palestinian Authority collapse, but there appears to be little willingness to grant Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas any political favors either.

As strange as it may seem, the dynamic between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is not entirely different, with many in the Israeli government now viewing Hamas rule in the territory as an unavoidable political reality. Some members of the security establishment even see some advantages to this state of affairs, most notably that it keeps Palestinians divided between Gaza and West Bank leaderships while having a sovereign power in Hamas to act as a bulwark against more radical Sunni groups that might want to create a foothold in historic Palestine.

For these reasons, none of the more radical ideas that are often brought up by right-wing populists in Israel, such as toppling Hamas in Gaza or annexing the 60 percent of the West Bank currently administrated by Israel (as opposed to the Palestinian Authority), are likely to materialize under the new government. But concessions aren’t likely either, especially given the veto power of the settler parties in the new government; it would take the exit of only two of their Knesset members to bring down the entire coalition.

One of the first things the new government is likely to do is consider Israel’s options on the Iranian nuclear program, especially if negotiators for Iran and the six world powers in talks finalize an agreement by their June 30 deadline. This is perhaps the only issue where Netanyahu might find some support from the opposition, especially in the ranks of the Labor Party, which includes some hawkish voices on Iran (the party’s candidate for defense minister in the last election, retired Gen. Amos Yadlin, advocated for a military strike against Iran in the past.) However, the window of opportunity for military action is likely closing, if it hasn’t shut already. Despite Netanyahu’s distaste for the White House’s negotiating posture on the Iranian nuclear program, risking an outright attack in spite of a possible agreement would be a massive gamble.

With Iran partly out of hand and little apparent desire to change the status quo on the occupation, much of the political energy of Netanyahu’s fourth government is likely be turned inward, to what some Israeli right-wingers see as the enemy within — peace groups, human rights activists, some elements in the media, the Supreme Court and Palestinians citizens. Already last week, Yinon Magal, a new legislator for Jewish Home, demanded that the government’s attorney file treason charges against Alon Liel, a former chief of staff in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, after his lobbying for international recognition of Palestinian statehood. A probe against Liel is unlikely, but the letter and the support for it on the right suggest where things could be headed.

Among other ideas floated by right-wing legislators during coalition-building negotiations were a law that would subject grants by other governments to human rights organizations to approval by the Ministry of Defense and the Knesset’s Committee for Security and Foreign Relations; a structural change that would give the Knesset the final word in the committee that nominates Supreme Court justices; several versions of the nation-state law, which seeks to elevate “the Jewish nature of the state” over its democratic principles; a bill that would allow the government to confiscate Palestinian private land for settlement construction (aimed to stop the torrent of lawsuits by landowners whose property was already built on); and a bill that would allow expatriates to vote in elections (aiming to decrease Palestinian representation in the Knesset, which has for some time been on the rise.) Some of these ideas were raised in the past, but they now have a better chance of passing, given the nature of the new government.

If Netanyahu is able to last more than two years in power with the new government, he will break the record held by Israel’s founding Prime Minister David Ben Gurion for consecutive years in office. There is a generation of Israelis who spent most of their adult lives with Netanyahu at the helm. And while he is certainly a product of the current era of Israeli politics that is both right-leaning and status quo oriented, Netanyahu’s footprint on Israeli political culture — with its internal culture war and confrontational attitude toward both friend and foe in the world — is likely to be felt for a long time.