Israel’s shock and awe has proven its power but lost the war
A protester raises her fist and holds a giant Palestinian flag outside the Israeli embassy during a demonstration in support of Palestine, in Athens, Greece on 9 June 2025
Antony Loewenstein writes in Middle Est Eye on 11 June 2025:
War is good for business and geopolitical posturing. Before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington in early February for his first visit to the US following President Donald Trump’s inauguration, he issued a bold statement on the strategic position of Israel.
“The decisions we made in the war [since 7 October 2023] have already changed the face of the Middle East,” he said. “Our decisions and the courage of our soldiers have redrawn the map. But I believe that working closely with President Trump, we can redraw it even further.”
How should this redrawn map be assessed?
Hamas is bloodied but undefeated in Gaza. The territory lies in ruins, leaving its remaining population with barely any resources to rebuild. Death and starvation stalk everyone.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has suffered military defeats, been infiltrated by Israeli intelligence, and now faces few viable options for projecting power in the near future. Political elites speak of disarming Hezbollah, though whether this is realistic is another question.
Morocco, Bahrain and the UAE accounted for 12 percent of Israel’s record $14.8bn in arms sales in 2024 – up from just 3 percent the year before
In Yemen, the Houthis continue to attack Israel, but pose no existential threat.
Meanwhile, since the overthrow of dictator Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, Israel has attacked and threatened Syria, while the new government in Damascus is flirting with Israel in a possible bid for “normalisation”.
The Gulf states remain friendly with Israel, and little has changed in the last 20 months to alter this relationship. According to Israel’s newly released arms sales figures for 2024, which reached a record $14.8bn, Morocco, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates accounted for 12 percent of total weapons sales – up from just 3 percent in 2023.
It is conceivable that Saudi Arabia will be coerced into signing a deal with Israel in the coming years, in exchange for arms and nuclear technology for the dictatorial kingdom.
An Israeli and US-led war against Iran remains a distinct possibility, though a unilateral Israeli strike is highly unlikely.
In the West Bank, Israel’s annexation plans are surging ahead with little more than weak European statements of concern. Israel’s plans for Greater Israel – vastly expanding its territorial reach – are well underway in Syria, Lebanon and beyond.
Shifting alliances
On paper, Israel appears to be riding high, boasting military victories and vanquished enemies. And yet, many Israelis and pro-war Jews in the diaspora do not feel confident or buoyed by success.
Instead, there is an air of defeatism and insecurity, stemming from the belief that the war for western public opinion has been lost – a sentiment reinforced by daily images of Israel’s campaign of deliberate mass destruction across the Gaza Strip. What Israel craves and desperately needs is not simply military prowess, but legitimacy in the public domain. And this is sorely lacking across virtually every demographic worldwide.
It is why Israel is spending at least $150m this year alone on “public diplomacy”. Get ready for an army of influencers, wined and dined in Tel Aviv’s restaurants and bars, to sell the virtues of Israeli democracy. Even pro-Israel journalists are beginning to question how this money is being spent, wishing Israeli PR were more responsive and effective.