Israel’s ‘day after’ plan for Gaza is no secret if you know where to look

Benjamin Netanyahu visits the Gaza Strip on 19 November 2024

Dahlia Scheindlin writes in Haaretz on 21 November 2024:

The mystery of what Israel’s government is planning for “the day after” the war in Gaza is essentially over. In fact, it was never really hidden.

This week the Israeli cabinet has been discussing new options for the distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza. These range from a logistics hub run by international organizations or turning over aid distribution to a private American firm. The plans raise more questions than they answer. Who would pay for these private firms, and more importantly, who will secure their operations? If the Israel Defense Forces takes over security, what does that mean in practice?

The clearest answer was provided on Wednesday by the recently-dismissed defense minister, Yoav Gallant. In a long post on X, he wrote: “The discussions to address ‘food distribution for residents of Gaza through private firms with the IDF providing security’ is whitewashing the start of a military government. Soldiers and the State of Israel will pay the price in blood due to misguided priorities that neglect more important security missions. Everything hinges on preparing an eventual alternative to replace the IDF in the field – without that we’re on the way to a military government,” an outcome he concluded would be “dangerous and irresponsible.”

Yet the government intends to do just that; the evidence stretches back all year. In late January, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a religious fundamentalist, began advocating for the IDF to take over humanitarian aid distribution itself. He said it at the time: “mark my words,” (a rough translation) “there will be a military government.”

Gallant took a different position back then too, reflecting the inherent clash between ecstatic religious aspirations and security interests. In early January, he was already concerned about the lack of a clear day-after plan. He proposed the outlines of one himself, envisioning that some Palestinian body would govern Gaza, possibly the Palestinian Authority; he supported total Israeli military freedom of movement in Gaza but opposed civilian control. Even this approach involves de facto Israeli control – there is no true separation between security and civilian control – but Smotrich was having none of it. Gallant saw where things were going, warning again in May that Israel was stumbling into military and civilian control of Gaza, for lack of any other planning.

Smotrich never let up on his core demands, from “voluntary departure of Palestinians” to the IDF’s takeover of humanitarian aid distribution. If audiences missed it, that’s because he provides more salacious headlines. In an August conference celebrating the heritage of Israel’s Gush Qatif settlements in Gaza, Smotrich was widely quoted saying that it would have been justified to starve the residents of Gaza. In fact, this was a throwaway line in his speech, which was devoted mainly to the urgency of the IDF assuming responsibility over humanitarian aid.

In early October, the prime minister began considering the suggestion. On October 9, Smotrich posted that the opposition of the senior IDF command to his idea was a “colossal debacle,” and that finally the cabinet had approved it. “The IDF has been instructed to prepare to take over aid in northern Gaza,” he wrote triumphantly. Asked at that time if such preparations were underway, a spokesperson for the Civil Administration for Gaza said he could not offer a comment, explaining that the issue is being handled exclusively by the prime minister’s office.

Do Smotrich and his allies actually determine government policy? To answer that, it’s easy enough to look at the decisions Benjamin Netanyahu has made so far: continuing the war for 13 months, avoiding a second hostage release deal, and escalating the regional war. The fundamentalist religious parties have gotten everything they ordered.

Yair Golan, former deputy Chief of Staff and leader of the left-wing “Democrats” party (a merger of Labor and Meretz), told IDF radio that Israel is on the road to re-establishing settlements and remaining in Gaza for a very long time. Doron Avital, former commander of the special forces unit Sayeret Matkal before serving as a lawmaker on the foreign affairs and defense committee, said in an interview that Israel risks “getting dragged into” establishing a military government – which he believed would be a “catastrophe.” Gaza was always a security liability for Israel, he noted, and this means “turning the wheels of history backwards.”

The question of what Israel is planning to be can be laid to rest; the only question is what can be done to stop it.

This article is reproduced in its entirety