Hamas has been hit hard by Israel, but is not out in Gaza
Palestinian Hamas fighters parade before they hand over captives who had been held in Gaza, January 2025
Maram Humaid and Justin Salhani writes in Al Jazeera on 29 Jan 2025:
On January 14, a few days before the ceasefire in Gaza took effect, the now-former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed a crowd at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC.
Over the last 15 months, Blinken has played a crucial role in supporting Israel’s military campaign against Gaza, a campaign that human rights organisations have described as genocidal, in which at least 47,300 Palestinians have been killed. The goal for Israel, as stated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was the total defeat and elimination of Hamas.
But speaking in one of his final appearances as Secretary of State on January 14, Blinken struck a different tone. “We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost,” Blinken said. “That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”
Hamas has undoubtedly been hit hard in the last 15 months, analysts and experts told Al Jazeera. It has likely lost thousands of fighters, including its military leader Yahya Sinwar, and, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), its weapons stockpile is depleted. But as the dust settles in Gaza, it is clear that Hamas has not been eradicated and still has a presence in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas fighters have prominently featured in the handover of Israeli captives as part of the ceasefire deal with Israel. And members of the Hamas-run civil administration have resumed work. If there is any authority in Gaza, it still appears to be Hamas.
“Hamas has an interest in creating an image of strength that is extremely orchestrated, and we should see that as a propaganda exercise,” Hugh Lovatt of the ECFR, told Al Jazeera. Lovatt added, however, that after “over a year of fighting, the [Hamas] fighters remain very much in control of Gaza”.
“Hamas is trying to show Israel that it failed to destroy it but also that the movement will have a veto over Gaza’s future going forward because neither Israel, the PA [Palestinian Authority], or the international community will be able to impose a post-conflict governance or security arrangement,” Lovatt said.
The scenes during the captive releases have caught many off guard, including Palestinians in Gaza. “I was very surprised to see the number of the Qassam [Hamas’s military wing] fighters during the release of the Israeli captives,” Fathi al-Ladawi, 67, displaced from Rafah to Nuseirat in central Gaza and a father of eight, told Al Jazeera. “The scale of the strikes and bombardment, especially in northern Gaza, made us think Hamas’s human and military resources had been significantly depleted. But what we saw proves they are still strong – perhaps even stronger than before.”
“[Hamas] was able to hold on to its hostages, who looked to be in good condition, and was able to negotiate and sign a ceasefire agreement with the parties that swore to annihilate it,” Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera. Hamas has also, according to Blinken’s statement, been able to recruit enough fighters to replace those it lost during the war.
The actual number of Hamas fighters killed during the war is difficult to know for certain. Hamas claims it has lost between 6,000 and 7,000 members from its armed and civilian wings, according to an ECFR report, based on interviews with two senior Hamas members. But, the report says, most of Hamas’s estimated 25,000 fighters are likely still alive and in hiding.