Under Trump’s plan, Egypt sees an opportunity to rebuild both Gaza and itself

Displaced Palestinians return to the northern Gaza Strip at the end of January 2025.

Zvi Bar’el writes in Haaretz on 28 January 2025:

Gazans going northward under Hamas’ supervision are an answer to U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to evacuate Gaza to “just clean out” the rubble and get down to reconstruction. His real estate magnate logic, backed by some of his allies, overlooks the Palestinian concept of sumud, “steadfastness,” holding on to the land even if it’s strewn with debris and rubble.

For nearly one million displaced Gazans witnessing the war’s devastation in the Gaza’s north for the first time, their primary concern is not assigning blame. Instead, they seek to find their old homes amid the rubble, to retrieve belongings or a find a child’s lost toy.

Above all, they aim to find the remains of their loved ones buried beneath the ruins. By cautious estimates, there are about 10,000 dead under the rubble in addition to the approximately 46,000 already counted. In the coming days, with due caution, their relatives will try to recover the bodies from under the crushed blocks and bent iron bars and give them a swift burial. Because no one knows how long the cease-fire will last.

A United Nations report estimates that about 1.8 million Gazans are now homeless. Immediate priorities include providing shelters, organizing distribution of humanitarian aid that has begun flowing according to the cease-fire deal, and establishing temporary water and electricity infrastructure.

Hamas is now coordinating the effort, mobilizing over 5,000 activists to help the displaced return home. It has also appealed to the international community and aid organizations for 135,000 tents and caravans. Some of them, like in the Shujaiyeh neighborhood, have already been set up and prepared for habitation.

According to the UN, the direct infrastructure damage stands at $18.5 billion, with rubble clearance alone estimated at $1.2 billion. The total cost of Gaza reconstruction is projected at $40 billion and could extend to 2040 or beyond.

The Palestinian Authority announced that a government operations room, set up to help Gazans return home, is ready for action. This sounds puzzling, to say the least, as Israel not only continues to officially oppose any involvement by the PA in the governance of Gaza, and Hamas has already assumed full control over the return operation. If the PA does have a role, it may only concern the reopening of the Rafah crossing.

According to the agreements reached with Egypt and the United States, the crossing will operate in a similar format to the arrangement between Israel, Egypt and the PA during Israel’s disengagement from Gaza.

The more important operations room is found in Egypt, and includes Israel, the U.S., the PA and Qatar. Its goal is to coordinate and oversee the implementation of the cease-fire agreement, and is responsible for the return of residents to northern Gaza, the release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and management procedures for the Rafah crossing.

Its primary aim is to clear possible roadblocks ahead of the second stage of the hostage-cease-fire agreement, and then move on to the third stage, which involves Gaza’s reconstruction. In the concise version of the agreement released in Israel – excluding the protocols – this stage was summarized in just a line and a half.

While public debate in Israel focuses on the potential resumption of war once the first stage of the hostage release is completed, it is the reconstruction of Gaza that concerns Egypt and other Arab nations, which are expected to foot the bill. Egypt, like Jordan, clarified on Sunday that it firmly rejects President Trump’s proposal to absorb Gazan refugees into its territory, “for the short or long term,” to enable the rebuilding of the enclave.

Egypt also points to Trump’s “deal of the century,” which outlines, among other provisions, the rebuilding of Gaza, construction of an airport and a designated port in El Arish, and a large industrial park in Sinai to employ Gazans who would commute daily. Trump’s latest proposal – excluding the transfer of refugees – is viewed in Egypt as a sign that the U.S. president is committed to Gaza’s reconstruction. Egyptian economists, contractors and businessmen are pinning their hopes on this development.

In an interview with the Emirati newspaper Al-Sharq, a leading Egyptian construction executive said that it is “already possible to establish a factory for prefabricated houses on the Egyptian side of Rafah, which could provide housing for thousands of Gazans, and then build factories for producing cement and other construction materials,” thus starting to implement Trump’s vision presented almost six years ago.

For Egyptian businesses – large construction companies, owners of cement, iron, glass and wood factories, earthworks contractors and owners of heavy equipment – Gaza represents a “land of opportunities”, which could rescue them from a long streak of recession and unemployment. They are eagerly awaiting the order to enter Gaza, as long as there is someone who will finance the work and guarantee the payments.

These companies purchased a lot of engineering equipment when President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi initiated huge construction projects, including a new administrative capital. However, economic turmoil brought Egypt to the brink of bankruptcy.

The ensuing economic reforms further worsened the status quo: the floating of Egyptian pound devalued the currency, the purchasing power of Egyptian citizens dropped; prices rose; subsidies, including the ones for flour and fuel, were cut. Egypt lost revenues from the Suez Canal following Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The heavy national debt stood at 168 billion dollars. As a result, multiple projects were paused, frozen or even cancelled.

Egypt is not the only country waiting for the green light. Turkey also expressed interest to take part in this initiative, as did Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.  Hence, construction and infrastructure companies found themselves with a lot of equipment and a large professional workforce with no projects to sustain them. Some of them have already worked in Gaza, particularly in 2021, when Egypt allocated $500 million for reconstruction work in Gaza following the cease-fire agreement at the end of Operation Guardian of the Walls. Those efforts were carried out by Egyptian companies.

Egypt is not the only country waiting for the green light. Turkey also expressed interest to take part in this initiative, as did Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. A Turkish diplomat told Haaretz that Ankara fully understands that to join the Gaza investment channel, it will have to “repair relations with Israel. It’s possible that if the cease-fire becomes permanent, and the war actually ends, Turkey might resume trade with Israel.”

Similar statements were made last week by Nail Olpak, president of the Foreign Economic Relations Board of Turkey. However, while Israel objects to Turkey and Qatar’s involvement in rebuilding Gaza, it is uncertain that it will have the final say in this decision. The close ties between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as well as their collective connections with President Trump and his family, could potentially shift the monopoly over determining Gaza’s future away from Israel.

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