For the first time, Israel just lost a war
Palestinian fighters from the armed wing of Hamas take part in a military parade to mark the anniversary of the 2014 war with Israel, near the border in central Gaza, 19 July 2023
David K Rees writes in Times of Israel on 15 January 2025:
For 16 years, Israel has been forced to fight war after war in order to defend itself. It won the wars in 1948, 1967, and 1973. It fought Hezbollah to a draw in 2006.
That has just changed. The peace deal it just cut with Hamas was clearly a win for Hamas and a loss for Israel. No wonder people in Gaza are cheering. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SRcKSUa558
This is what Hamas won in this war:
1. It turned world opinion against Israel.
2. It has negotiated the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom have been sentenced to life terms.
2. While some of its leaders were killed, they will be replaced with new ones.
3. While many of its fighters were killed, according press reports, Hamas has been rebuilding its fighting wing, which now has 12,000 soldiers in Gaza.
4. Hamas has proved that Israel is willing to give up huge amounts to get a small amount in return.
5. Hamas gets to claim proudly that the October 7, 2023 massacre brought about terrific results. In fact, Israel is weaker now than it was on October 6, 2023.
6. It really pays to take hostages.
7. While much of Gaza has been destroyed, the world is about to provide huge sums in order to rebuild it. One can expect that a significant amount of these sums will indirectly wind up in Hamas’ coffers.
8. Hamas will still control Gaza. UNRWA will remain as it has been.
9. The war has created a serious rift between Israel and the United States.
10. Initially, Hamas will only have to release three hostages. It will have to release 4 more hostages shortly after that. During phase one of the deal, only a total of 33 hostages will be released. Israel may trade more Palestinian prisoners being held by Hamas for more hostages after that. Thus, at the end of phase one of the deal, Hamas will be able to continue to hold roughly 30 hostages, some of whom may already be dead.
10. Israel has failed in its objectives as stated at the beginning of the war, which included the total elimination of Hamas in Gaza.
11. It pays to commit war crimes, including not only the war crimes that Hamas committed during the October 7th massacre, but by firing thousands of missiles into Israel, every one of them a war crime.
12. The cost to Israel of this war has been enormous. Not only has Hamas been able to kill over 400 Israeli soldiers in Gaza since the October 7th massacre, but Israel’s national debt has increased substantially and its economy has been hurt as well. It has been estimated that Israel’s economic activity has been reduced over 20% by the war.
13. While Israel will get some respite from Hamas forces in Gaza, it still has the remaining parts of Iran’s axis of resistance, including the Houthis and Hamas on the West Bank, and Iran, to deal with.
14. Israel will begin to to withdraw its troops from Gaza and, for now, the killing will cease.