Ex-Mossad Chief After Nasrallah Killing: This Is a Chance to Reshape the Middle East

Former Mossad head Tamir Pardo at a conference in 2018.Credit: Ofer Vaknin

However, he is quite skeptical that the military achievements of the past two weeks will translate into diplomatic gains.

Pardo says that since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, a balance of fear was sustained between Israel and Hezbollah. “This was the official policy even though the balance of powers was always between an elephant and a mouse.” Therefore, “to the best of my knowledge, after that war the possibility of closing the circle” – i.e., of killing Nasrallah – “never came up. All the clandestine and subversive operations were done in Syria. As soon as Hezbollah managed to transfer munitions into Lebanon, it enjoyed immunity.”

The former Mossad chief says the Nasrallah assassination “is not a single operation but rather, a series of operations. The Mossad was very active in Lebanon for years. But all the intelligence activity was an amazing synergetic combination with Israel Defense Forces’ Military Intelligence and the entire IDF, who always worked together.

“The precise intelligence is the key achievement here,” he says. “However, there’s no question that 83 tons of explosives dropped on a block of buildings played its part. The air force knows how to do its job and has proven this for decades. Incidentally, this is the same air force and the same 69th Squadron that was pilloried and defamed by government ministers and lawmakers just a year ago,” after some of its reservist pilots said they would not report for duty due to the judicial coup.

“Unfortunately, over the years Hezbollah had a sponsor that enabled it to build a military many times larger than the Lebanese army,” Pardo adds. “This was an army built by Iran, which trained and financed it. Hezbollah became part of [Revolutionary Guards’ commander] Qassem Soleimani’s structure of force.” Soleimani was assassinated by the United States in January 2020.

He continues: “Soleimani instituted a doctrine that combined terrorist operations abroad with the building up of a force with operational capabilities in different arenas in the Middle East – the peak of this being in Syria during the war against the Islamic State group.”

Even before ISIS, though, Iran turned Hezbollah into a significant force.

“Correct. For nearly four decades, Iran invested billions in Hezbollah. A terror monster was built with its main base in Lebanon and its tentacles encompassing the world. The Iranian strike force enabled the design of the ring of fire around Israel, as a formative Iranian move, dedicated to Israel’s destruction. In effect, a situation was created in which Iran had a border with Israel but Israel had no border with Iran, which is more than 1,000 miles [1,600 kilometers] away.”

Can we assume that IDF and intelligence operations against Hezbollah are significantly impacting Iran’s capabilities here?

“This capability has suffered a mortal blow and is still getting hit. The billions of dollars of investment in Hezbollah went down the drain. It’s not yet clear whether Hezbollah and Iran have the genuine capacity to rehabilitate it. In my humble opinion, there is no way they can rehabilitate it to what it was before. But we mustn’t forget that the war hasn’t ended. Iran and Hezbollah will have to recalculate their path.”

How would you characterize the dilemmas facing Iran?

“There are different voices there. And it chiefly needs to decide about the nuclear issue. Does it want to improve relations with the United States and the West and thus move toward an agreement on the nuclear issue, or does Iran decide to break out for a nuclear bomb?”

What should this new order in the Middle East look like?

“The exit from the stage of the archterrorist Nasrallah and the entire Hezbollah leadership requires a reexamination of the Israeli strategy in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s joining the war that began on October 7, and which was accelerated in the past couple of weeks, brought the Middle East to the brink of a regional war. A war that is no one’s interest.”

But the danger of a regional war hasn’t passed. Iran is threatening revenge.

“The talks and negotiations led by the United States over the past year did not lead to an agreement – mainly because you can’t reach any agreement when the negotiators are not Lebanon and Israel but rather Iran, which is pulling the strings and dictating the targets and objectives.

“Israel is not succeeding in relaying, or not trying to relay, the basic, obvious and clear message that the war in the north is a war with Lebanon. Lebanon went to war with Israel on October 7. Iran’s total victory here was in watching the international community and the Israeli government agree to distinguish Lebanon from Hezbollah. Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu said a few days ago that Israel’s war is not with Lebanon but Hezbollah.”

And is that wrong?

“This is fundamentally wrong. It’s a terrible mistake. We are at war with Lebanon – a war that forced Israel to evacuate the country’s north, to turn tens of thousands of Israelis into internal refugees and to keep more than a million people close to shelters while for an entire year, day after day, they are barraged with rockets, missiles, mortars and anti-tank missiles.”

Is it possible to reach an accord with Lebanon when Hezbollah is so dominant?

“Hezbollah is a Lebanese party with a military many times larger than the Lebanese army, with equipment such as missiles, rockets and drones equivalent to that of a midsize national power. As a Lebanese political party, the organization represents the Shi’ites in the parliament and has two ministers in the cabinet. Hezbollah is part and parcel of Lebanon.”

‘International pressure’

The former Mossad chief is genuinely perplexed by how the distinction arose (with Israel’s help as well) between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah.

“Astonishingly, Lebanon managed to manufacture an image for itself of a peace-loving country that Hezbollah is not part of, and in which Hezbollah is not subject to its authority – when in fact the organization is an integral part of the Lebanese entity. The height of absurdity is the way the Lebanese government acts as though Hezbollah’s acts of aggression have nothing to do with Lebanon.”

He adds, bitterly: “Only Israel could agree for Lebanon to be respected and accepted in every salon in the world, despite the fact that it shelters a terrorist army.”

Therefore, he says, “the Israeli government should announce loudly and clearly that Lebanon is a single entity, and that the Lebanese government bears sole responsibility for every act of aggression that comes out of Lebanon. That the territory known to the world as Lebanon has one government, one flag and one army. That any negotiations to end the war and determine security arrangements will only take place with the Lebanese government. This war could be ended within hours from the moment Israel makes this clear and the international community acknowledges the fact that there is only one single legal entity in Lebanon.”

Is the world capable of imposing this?

“The United States, France, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have the power to adopt this outlook.”

But assuming Lebanon submits to the Israeli threat and accepts responsibility for its sovereignty, how can it impose this on Hezbollah, which has a much bigger military than its own army?

“It’s all about politics and international pressure. In the end, Lebanon is a state with a socioeconomic and political structure, and not a secret underground group. The government in Beirut is the biggest employer. It operates banks and all types of companies. The main thing is that they are Lebanese in their country, and not foreigners like the Palestinians were in the past.

“Thus, it’s all a matter of [striking] an agreement. International pressure is what can lead them to it. Pressure through talk, but also through sanctions. Beyond the fact that the war would end within hours, Hezbollah’s sponsor Iran would lose a critical component of its power and the ring of fire around Israel would fade. Moreover, Hezbollah activity throughout the region would be weakened and all the rules of the game in the Middle East would change.”

Pardo also has a practical suggestion, albeit one that has little chance of finding support among the Israeli public and government amid the euphoria over recent events. “Israel should declare that it is prepared to enter direct negotiations with the Lebanese government in order to settle all of the disputes,” he asserts.

Would Netanyahu agree to that?

“Unfortunately, Israel has no strategy. Right now, there is an incredible opportunity to shape the Middle East. Will Bibi take advantage of this opportunity? I wish, but I don’t believe it will happen. While it’s true he scored some points in recent days, the courtroom in Jerusalem still awaits him and the October 7 fiasco is still on his head, even though his supporters have forgotten this.”

Do you see a chance that this opportunity might be leveraged to get the hostages back?

“Unfortunately, I have to say no there too.”

Pardo also brings up something that isn’t being talked about enough: the economic situation. “Will the looming economic disaster be dealt with? Here, too, my answer is no. It will not be properly addressed.”

Is it possible that Netanyahu will try to move up the elections now?

“It’s definitely a possibility.”

This article is reproduced in its entirety.