How US plan for Mideast could shape next Israeli government

Orthodox Jew walks past a Likud election campaign billboard in Jerusalem

Yossi Beilin writes in Al Monitor, “There is a new date for the “deal of the century” US President Donald Trump promised at the start of his term two years ago. White House senior adviser and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner said at the Warsaw Mideast Conference that the United States will put forward a Middle East peace plan after the Israeli general election on April 9 and that both sides will have to make some compromises. Knowledgable sources confirmed to Al-Monitor that Trump plans to lay out his detailed plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians after the Israeli election but before the formation of a new government, regardless of who heads it.

“The choice seems a missed opportunity. The US administration could have laid out its plan during the electoral race, which does not seem to focus on any significant diplomatic issue. That way, it would have appeared on the public agenda and required the parties to adopt a stance in reaction to it. But that won’t happen. It is safe to assume that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled to Trump that by keeping the promise he made last year to submit his plan within four months, he could cost the Likud seats to other right-wing parties such as HaBayit HaYehudi. Netanyahu knows that the later would oppose any diplomatic plan even if it came from such avid settlement supporters as Ambassador David Friedman. At the same time, Israel Resilience head Benny Gantz probably has no qualms about the delay, either. His party is far from reaching any agreements with its partner, Moshe Ya’alon’s Telem, over the issue of partition of the land, without which there can be no peace plan.”…

“Should the outcome of the election make it possible for a bloc of center-left parties to prevent the right from forming an ideological coalition, the most likely scenario is the formation of a national unity government or a government with the ultra-Orthodox. In any event, the US peace plan could increase the chances of a unity government, regardless of who heads it. Netanyahu may be very popular with the current administration, but Trump himself is pushing for the implementation of the deal that he promised. At a press conference at last year’s UN General Assembly summit, he called the plan his “dream.” He must also realize that Netanyahu’s next term in office may be too short to complete such a diplomatic maneuver, particularly since he is the kind of leader who would have a hard time leading such a project with the Palestinians. At the same press conference in 2018, Trump said that he wants to finish dealing with the peace plan by the end of his term in 2021. As such, it can be assumed that he would appreciate an Israeli prime minister who is willing to take his plan seriously.”…

Likud election campaign billboard reading ‘Netanyahu is a different league”

“A senior Palestinian source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that the emerging understanding between Abbas and the other Arab leaders is that the Arab League will promise to support the PLO’s positions in exchange for Palestinian willingness to begin talks about the plan, unless the Palestinians and the Quartet agree that the plan is a non-starter. If that is their understanding, the plan could still send Israel and the Palestinians back to the negotiating table. The pragmatic Arab camp is showing willingness to back the Palestinians, but would also likely reject the Palestinians’ total boycott of the American proposal.” (more…)