Bibi blames plots, putsches and the people

In this posting, 1) graph of the polls, 2) Ynet on blaming the people, 3) Haaretz blog on 15 reasons why Netanyahu could lose the next Israeli elections and 4) Reuters on, amongst other things, how a new mandate ‘will allow Netanyahu to pursue his expansionist settlement policies on occupied land Palestinians seek for a state. It will also allow the prime minister to push ahead with the Jewish nation-state bill that he says is essential to protecting Israel’s Jewish identity’.

Netanyahu is blaming Israeli voters for his inability to rule

If the prime minister says he is incapable of controlling a government without a large Likud faction, how will he lead the next government? From Netanyahu’s point of view, another government led by him is a chronicle of a foretold failure.

By Nahum Barnea, Ynet Op-Ed
December 03, 2014

It’s the people’s fault, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu basically said Tuesday night. He pointed at the election results from two years ago, which did not give his party enough Knesset seats and forced him to establish a government whose ministers are undermining him.

It’s the people’s fault, Yitzhak Ben-Aharon, one of the Labor Party leaders, basically said when the voters turned their back on his party in 1977 and elected a government led by Menachem Begin.

For years, Ben-Aharon’s words served as an example of the arrogance, insensitivity and alienation of the Labor Party. A politician who blames voters for his failure is like a dancer blaming the floor for his fall and a plumber blaming a pipe for leaking. He becomes a subject of ridicule and mockery.

Netanyahu knows the people are not interested in these elections. Not because the people are so happy with the government or satisfied with the current situation. On the contrary. But the people assume that the situation won’t improve as a result of the elections, and may even become worse. It’s like in that old joke about the British army: The good news is that we’re going to change our underwear; the bad news is that we’re going to change it with each other.

Moreover, when it comes to history, Netanyahu has a habit of confusing the facts. The confusion begins in 1999, when Netanyahu ran against Ehud Barak and was defeated. Two years later, in 2001, there were special elections for prime minister. Netanyahu could have been elected as the Likud candidate. He refused, explaining that he would not be able to lead the government with a small Likud faction behind him.

On Tuesday, during his press conference, Netanyahu proudly presented that decision from 2001. He said it proved that he had been willing to give up the premiership in favour of an efficient and organized government.

At the time, Ariel Sharon took his place, won the elections and established one of the most efficient, stable and successful governments in the history of the State of Israel. His government dealt with a serious wave of terror as part of the second intifada, fought and won.

Sharon succeeded in controlling his government thanks to his leadership skills, craftiness and political experience. The diminished Likud faction didn’t bother him. On the contrary, the damage began when the Sharon-led Likud doubled its power in 2003. The revolt broke out in the large Likud faction.

The first lesson is that governments are not a reality show: You don’t choose your government; you run your government. If the person heading the government is incapable of leading it, it falls apart.

The second lesson is that the cracks in the coalition’s performance don’t start from the partners but from the ruling party.

That’s what happened in the current government too: In its first year, the most obedient factions were Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. The Likud and Bayit Yehudi factions acted differently. In the Likud, Knesset Members Danny Danon, Moshe Feiglin, Miri Regev and others did as they pleased; in Bayit Yehudi, Minister Uri Ariel and the members of his sub-faction went wild, and others went wild too.

But why dwell on the past? Let’s look forward. If Netanyahu says he is incapable of controlling a government without a large Likud faction, how will he lead the next government? Why every poll, including the polls lying on his desk, gives the Likud around 20 Knesset seats, no more. From Netanyahu’s point of view, the next government led by him is a chronicle of a foretold failure.

The dismissal notices he sent Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni on Tuesday evening were justified. Not because of their alleged conspiracies against him. The conspiracies of Lapid’s people were theoretical at most, while the attempts made by the prime minister’s messengers to reach an agreement with the ultra-Orthodox parties were slightly more serious.

But all the attempts, from here and from there, crashed on the walls of the Ashkenazi haredim. The haredi Knesset members proved that they are serious people who respect the rules of the game. Their heart isn’t subject to false adventures.

The justification for the two ministers’ dismissal should be found in the present, not in the past. In the current situation, their continued presence around the cabinet table would have been an insult to the prime minister’s status, an insult to them and an insult to the political system. It was time to say goodbye.

But the way they were described by Netanyahu was ridiculous. He blew up their alleged sins to monstrous dimensions. The Iranian nuclear program, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Islamic State, US President Barack Obama, Livni and Lapid – they have all been conspiring to destroy the Jewish nationality, led by its elected representative.

Only a person with a very agitated and troubled soul is capable of blowing up his rivals to such dimensions.

Finance Minister Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni (Hatnua); in Netanyahu’s view they were conspiring to set up an alternative coalition government while still ministers, so he sacked them. Photo by Yonatan Sindel/Flash90

15 reasons why Netanyahu could lose the next Israeli elections

A major upset will shock everyone but is perfectly predictable with the benefit of hindsight.

By Chemi Shalev, Haaretz blog
December 03, 2014

The news that Israel is heading for new elections – confirmed on Tuesday with the sacking of both Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni from the cabinet – has been greeted with a collective groan, especially on the left. The justifications for the early ballot are flimsy, commentators have noted, and the results are known in advance. The conventional wisdom that prevails has already been summed up by the biblical Ecclesiastes: “What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun”; and Benjamin Netanyahu will be elected prime minister, once again,

Everything certainly seems to point in that direction. Even if Israelis are tired of Netanyahu, there is no one who can compete with his national security credentials, no battle-trained IDF general like Yitzhak Rabin or Ehud Barak who swept the Labor Party to its only two victories in the past 40 years. Livni was foreign minister for a while, but she has lost much of her previous popularity, while Labor’s Isaac Herzog and Lapid have not spent a minute in any ministerial position focused on defense or foreign affairs, a seeming prerequisite to electoral victory.

And it goes without saying that the Israeli electorate has shifted to the right in recent years, a process that has even accelerated in the wake of the last Gaza war; or that demographic realities continue to work their wonder with more and more obediently single-minded religious voters and less and less secular and moderate Israelis going to the polls.

So the thought that a candidate to Netanyahu’s left can be elected prime minister is almost universally treated as no more than a pipe dream. Or is it?

After all, in 1977 no one in the world believed Likud would win for the very reason that it had never happened before. As Thomas Hardy wrote (in the admittedly different context of the Romantic Adventures of a Milkmaid): “Time changes everything except something within us which is always surprised by change.” A major upset will shock everyone, by definition, but with the benefit of hindsight it will be deemed to have been perfectly predictable. If that happens, these are probably some of the top reasons that will be cited in post-mortem analyses:

1. Netanyahu overstayed his welcome. After 26 years in politics, 14 years in the cabinet and almost 9 years as prime minister, Israelis are on the lookout for someone new. The slogan “anyone but Netanyahu” seemed to work the last time Netanyahu lost in 1999; it may be due for a comeback.

2. The downward spiral in Netanyahu’s approval rating could turn out to be a harbinger of things to come. Netanyahu has dived from 77% approval in early August to 38% in last week’s Haaretz poll, with no guarantee that he has hit rock bottom. His misplaced sense of timing may have brought Netanyahu to call early elections just as the public’s fatigue from his leadership reached a critical mass.

3. The seeming inevitability of Netanyahu’s re-election, on the one hand, and the widespread disapproval of his performance among voters to his right, on the other, could drive many right-wingers to vote for his ideological alternatives, Naftali Bennett’s Habayit Hayehudi and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. And while Israeli law does not mandate that the person chosen to form a new government be the leader of the party with the most Knesset seats – it’s enough if he enjoys the support of a majority of the overall Knesset – if the Likud gets significantly fewer seats than other parties Netanyahu’s position will grow precarious. And the Likud, mind you, only has 18 of 120 seats now.

4. And while Bennet has nowhere else to go – he is angling to be Netanyahu’s defence minister in the next cabinet – Lieberman is more of a wild card. He has close links with some of Netanyahu’s fiercest enemies and seems to enjoy tormenting his former mentor and boss. He might not resist the temptation of withholding his recommendation of Netanyahu as the next prime minister, or, if he wants to go in for the kill, teaming up with one of his rivals.

5. All of which could pave the way for one of Netanyahu’s worst fears: that President Reuven Rivlin gets the excuse he needs for sweet revenge and proceeds to hand the task of forming a new government to someone completely different.

6. In order to pre-empt such a move, Netanyahu has been busy cementing his ties with Bennet, who now says he has an “alliance” with the prime minister, as well as with the ultra-Orthodox parties. But this cohesion could be Netanyahu’s undoing: many otherwise right-wing Israelis could be turned off by the prospects of a coalition dominated by religious parties and opt to strengthen a centrist alternative instead.

Moshe Kahlon, who is expected to form a new party, is former Likud Minister of Communications and, 2011-2013, Minister of Welfare and Social Services. In 2012 he announced he would take a break from politics at the 2013 election. Photo by Nir Kafri

7. One of which is likely to be the party being set up by the popular former communications minister, Moshe Kahlon, a son of Libyan-born immigrants. At a time of brewing discontent over the growing gap between rich and poor, Kahlon could seem like a viable alternative for many traditional Likud voters who would want to see him replicate his success at dramatically lowering cellphone charges in other consumer related areas. And Kahlon could find himself fitting in more easily with a coalition to his left rather than to his right.

8. Netanyahu is likely to try and steer the election campaign to issues of Iran, terror, security and Jews vs. everyone else, which are considered to be his forte. Nonetheless, he is entering the campaign at a time when the economy is slowing, the budget is straining and the high cost of living of everything from apartments to chocolate Milky puddings is as infuriating as always. Netanyahu will try to pin the blame on Lapid, who will return the favor, but the opposition could try to rekindle the spirit of the mass social protests of 2011, which catapulted Lapid to national prominence in the first place.

9. Some “knights on white horses” are waiting in the wings to plunge into politics while other potential saviors could face significant political and personal pressures to get off the fence to “save the homeland.” Most of the potential candidates for such a move – former Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, for example, or former military intelligence head Amos Yadlin – won’t be joining Netanyahu or the Likud but his rivals to the center and left. This could create the impression that Netanyahu and his Likud are stagnant while the force and momentum are with his rivals – especially if these are pressured to team up, as befits a time of “national emergency” that they claim is upon us.

10. The same kind of “last chance to save Israel” approach could play a major role in reversing one of the left’s perennial disadvantages: voter apathy. Instead of the traditional disclaimers “my vote won’t make a difference” and “I’d rather go to the beach”, some clever campaigner could find a way to make the trip to the ballot box fashionable again. In a close election, legions of bored millennials, pooh-poohing punk rockers, and hoity-toity hipsters who are voting for the first time in their lives could make the difference.

11. This is truer ten times over of Israeli Arabs, whose participation in Israeli elections has declined from almost 90% in the 1950’s to about 50% today. Their growing alienation from Israel could lead to an acceleration of that process, but might also actually reverse it. If the Arabs succeed in putting together a credible joint list – as they must in order to overcome the new threshold needed for Knesset entry – and if their outrage over Netanyahu’s Jewish nation-state law or Lieberman’s offer to “take the money and run” from Israeli citizenship are funneled into going to the polls, the Arab vote could make a game-changing difference. Instead of the 13 members of Knesset their parties now have, they could elect as many as 20, thus tilting the scales decisively against the Likud and Netanyahu.

12. Obviously, the Obama administration and European countries will be rooting for Netanyahu’s defeat. If they make their preference too obvious, it will work in his favour. Among other things, however, the White House could discreetly dispatch some of the data crunchers and get-out-the vote experts who helped Obama win in 2008 and 2012 to assist Israel’s centre-left in making the most of its dwindling electorate.

13. Arab terror attacks could play a role, as it did when an attack on a bus near Jericho a day before the 1988 elections killed four Israelis and probably gave the Likud the extra push it needed to eke out a victory. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would no doubt prefer to see Netanyahu replaced, but his Hamas partners might think that an obstinate Israel under the Likud serves their political purposes better than a conciliatory Israel under a more moderate leader. Interestingly, Iran, which probably concurred with the Hamas view in the past, could see things differently now in light of its ongoing nuclear negotiations with the United States. Tehran might even decide to rein in Hamas and Hezbollah, at least for the duration of the campaign.

With close friends like these (far-right American billionaire Sheldon Adelson) who needs enemies. Well, the PM seems to. Photo by Tess Scheflan

14. Traditionally, after cementing his right-wing “base,” Netanyahu lurches to the centre in the final weeks before elections, as he did in his victories in 1996, 2009 and 2013. But that avenue could be closed for him this time around: because there won’t be enough time, because he has maneuvered too far to the right in recent weeks and because, after his performance in the past year and a half, for him to claim that he is the candidate who will bring “peace with security” stretches credibility to a breaking point. And because his close association with the unpopular Sheldon Adelson, which has yielded so many dividends, could come back now to haunt him, if his opponents play their cards right.

15. Because given enough reason, when push comes to shove, Israelis will choose to step back from the brink, from international isolation, from confrontation with Israeli Arabs, from estrangement from American Jews, from a moribund peace process, from a return to Orthodox hegemony, from a government dedicated to the advancement of settlements beyond its border rather than the towns and villages within. Instead of voting for a candidate who promises that things won’t get worse, they could opt for one who pledges to make them better; instead of settling for what they already know, they might set Israel on a new course, towards a future unknown.

Stranger things have happened, though not too many, it’s true. But let’s face it: if you want to enjoy yourself in the next few months, there’s no point in assuming that there’s no point in the elections. The key, as Journey famously sang, is simple: “Don’t stop believing.”

Netanyahu seeks early election, fires top ministers

By Ari Rabinovitch, Reuters
December 02, 2014

JERUSALEM–Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sacked his finance and justice ministers on Tuesday, signalling the break-up of his bickering coalition and opening the way for early national elections in Israel.

Netanyahu’s government, which only took office last year, has been unravelling over an array of issues, including the 2015 budget and a Jewish nation-state bill that critics say discriminates against Arab citizens.

Two television polls on Tuesday said Netanyahu’s rightist Likud party would emerge once again as the largest group in parliament if elections were held today, almost certainly ensuring him a fourth term as prime minister.

The next national ballot is not scheduled until 2017, but Netanyahu announced that he wanted to dissolve parliament “as soon as possible” and hold an early election.

He also ordered the dismissals of Finance Minister Yair Lapid and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, the heads of two separate centrist parties who have been chaffing against the right-wingers that predominate in the cabinet.

Netanyahu said Lapid and Livni had quietly tried to form an alternative coalition. “In one word, that is called a putsch. And that makes it impossible to run a government,” he said in a televised news conference.

Livni denied his accusations and said the prime minister had been working behind the scenes to replace them.

With next year’s budget not agreed and growth slowing in the wake of the July-August Gaza war, Lapid accused Netanyahu of putting his political interests before those of Israel.

“The firing of ministers is an act of cowardice and loss of control. We are sad to see that the prime minister has chosen to act without consideration for the national interest and to drag Israel to unnecessary elections,” his Yesh Atid party said.

HOUSE PRICES

A motion to dissolve parliament is expected to be heard on Wednesday and could come into effect next week once a date for an election had been decided. Commentators speculated that the vote might come in March.

Israeli markets fell on the election news, with the shekel sliding 1.3 percent to a two-year low against the dollar.

The government will remain in power until a new one is sworn in. Without the backing of Lapid and Livni’s centrists parties, it would be a minority caretaker administration mainly dealing with day-to-day business.

Relations between Netanyahu and Lapid — a former television chat show host whose newly formed party came a surprise second in 2013 — disintegrated over the finance minister’s drive to exempt first-time home buyers from value added tax.

As with the 2013 election, campaigning for any 2015 vote is likely to be dominated by domestic issues, such as the high cost of living, rather than international affairs or the possibility of reviving defunct peace talks with the Palestinians.

Livni fell out with Netanyahu over the nation-state legislation, which won cabinet approval a week ago, but she has looked uncomfortable in the government ever since peace negotiations with the Palestinians collapsed in April.

A new mandate could give Netanyahu more leeway domestically to pursue his expansionist settlement policies on occupied land Palestinians seek for a state. It will also allow the prime minister to push ahead with the Jewish nation-state bill that he says is essential to protecting Israel’s Jewish identity.

Additional reporting by Jeffrey Heller, Maayan Lubell, Allyn Fisher-Ilan and Steven Scheer