Bibi's gamble

Articles by Ben Caspit and Barak Ravid.

Democrat Joe Biden smoothes Bibi’s vanity in 2010. More needed. Matthew Hinton / AFP, Getty

Why Bibi snubbed Obama and is skipping next week’s AIPAC conference

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to cancel his US trip so that he could avoid meeting with both President Barack Obama and the US Jewish community.

By Ben Caspit, trans. Sandy Bloom, Al Monitor, Israel Pulse
March 14, 2016

To explain Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to forego a meeting with US President Barak Obama, associates of the prime minister noted to Al-Monitor the US primaries and Netanyahu’s desire to avoid being dragged into the ruckus surrounding them. While there is some truth to this excuse, given on condition of anonymity, it is not exactly high on the list of the real reasons. What is taking place in the US primaries has caused great consternation to Netanyahu as well as his American political patron, casino mogul Sheldon Adelson. In contrast to the previous presidential contest, during which Adelson sunk many millions into the candidacy of Newt Gingrich before skipping over to Mitt Romney’s camp and investing $100 million in him, this time, Netanyahu and Adelson are waiting to see which way the wind would turn. The problem is that the wind has swirled in a crazy direction. No one in Netanyahu or Adelson’s circles had dreamed of Donald Trump’s rise. Now they are beginning to get used to him, as reflected in the tone of the articles in Israel Hayom, the pro-Netanyahu newspaper financed by Adelson.

Netanyahu had two more important reasons that induced him to skip the meeting with Obama on March 18 and waive an appearance before American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) the following night. One was a diplomatic reason, the other was political-religious.

The diplomatic reason is connected to the discussion over a memorandum of understanding between Israel and the United States that will determine the dimensions of the military aid package from the United States to Israel in the decade starting in 2017. Currently, Israel receives about $3 billion a year in security aid. Following the nuclear agreement with Iran, Israel hoped to upgrade the package to more than $4 billion. However, Netanyahu refused to open contacts while the US administration was willing to meet it halfway (in the middle of last year), in order to wage his hopeless struggle against ratification of the nuclear agreement in Congress.

Now, the prime minister finds himself in a hopeless situation.

The Americans are agreeing to ramp up assistance, but not to the level that Israel wants. The gaps remain, and chances that they will be bridged are low. Israel demands $4 billion a year, not including special assistance for the development of its various interceptor programmes, including the Magic Wand (David’s Sling) and the Arrow missile. They are intended to complete Israel’s aerial protection against long-range rockets and missiles. The support needed for these projects comes to hundreds of millions of dollars a year, meaning that what Israel really wants is assistance close to $5 billion, all told. The Americans are willing to enlarge the aid to about $4 billion total. This is a significant gap.

Netanyahu is still determined to postpone the agreement to the next president’s term of office, despite Vice President Joe Biden begging him last week when he was in Israel to sign it during Obama’s term of office. Netanyahu has his reasons. The prime minister is concerned about a “diplomatic ambush” from Obama during his last few months in office. He fears something along the lines of the Clinton Parameters that President Bill Clinton set out in the last few days of his term of office.

Obama possesses a framework agreement formulated by Secretary of State John Kerry. The president can deliver a speech and detail the conditions of the framework agreement, a kind of “Obama Parameters.” Or he can lend his support to the French initiative at the Security Council regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state by not vetoing it. Obama could even take an American framework agreement to the Security Council for ratification. Such acts would be viewed by Netanyahu as a real strategic catastrophe.

Netanyahu reckons that the president would find it easier to carry out such a move if a military aid package for the next decade is signed. A well-publicized signing ceremony would remove the anti-Israeli image that Netanyahu has painted on Obama in recent years. Simultaneously, it would allow the American president to leave behind a diplomatic legacy. Those close to Netanyahu assess that if the sides do not reach an agreement on military aid, it will be harder for Obama to embark on a diplomatic campaign. He will need something to show his even-handedness, Netanyahu’s people think, because he won’t want to harm Hillary Clinton’s chances at the presidency and he won’t want to go down in history as an anti-Israeli president.

Netanyahu, who was a cautious and calculating leader for most of his career, has become an out-of-control gambler in the last two years. Success has gone to his head and his closeness to Adelson and his unlimited financial resources have given him a false sense of security. After he lost his wager on US presidential candidate Mitt Romney, Netanyahu went on to fail in his Iranian policy and then gambled again to try to avert congressional authorization of the agreement. He failed yet again — but each time he keeps raising the bar one more notch.

An Israeli minister told Al-Monitor last week on condition of anonymity that Netanyahu is endangering Israel’s most important strategic interests. “It could happen that Trump will be president and he’ll reassess the whole business of American support all over the world. We could even find ourselves with zero support due to Netanyahu’s shenanigans,” he said.

So, to avoid finding himself being dragged into signing the memorandum, Netanyahu decided to miss the presidential meeting. At the moment, his coalition is more important to him than military aid. He founded a narrow right-wing government, and a political tremor could dismantle it.

The second reason that impelled him not to travel to the United States at this time is also connected to these political interests: In January, the Israeli government reached a historic compromise and allotted Reform and Conservative Jews a special, separate prayer space opposite the Western Wall, Judaism’s holiest site. This compromise passed a government vote, but also let an ancient genie out of its bottle. The ultra-Orthodox parties, without whom Netanyahu cannot maintain his government, are now threatening to dismantle the coalition unless he agrees to their demand to amend this historic agreement. This is the same agreement that is viewed by world Jewry as a reconciliatory step taken by the Jewish state controlled by an Orthodox establishment with most of the world’s Jews, who are Reform or Conservative.

Netanyahu knows that if he attends the AIPAC conference at the end of this week, he would receive a warm and festive public welcome from the Reform and Conservative Jews. But it would be a dangerous bear hug. Netanyahu is a secular Jew, even a borderline atheist, and has no interest in all this hullabaloo. His worldview is decidedly non-Orthodox, but he is an experienced politician and his coalition would fall apart without the ultra-Orthodox. He fell into this trap against his will and at the moment, has no idea how to get through this impasse. The last thing he needs now is a public show of support by Reform Jewry, which will only further enrage his natural ultra-Orthodox coalition partners.

Netanyahu understands that sometimes, the best thing to do is simply stay home, disengage and pray for a miracle.

Netanyahu Cancels Visit to U.S.; White House: PM Opted Out of Obama Meet

‘We were surprised to first learn via media reports that the Prime Minister, rather than accept our invitation, opted to cancel his visit,’ angry White House says, after sources at PM’s bureau claimed no appropriate time for meeting was found ahead of AIPAC confab.

By Barak Ravid, Haaretz
March 08, 2016

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cancelled a trip to the United States, where he had planned to attend the conference of the pro-Israel lobby the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, AIPAC.

The White House was outraged at the cancellation, after it was reported that among the reasons given for scrapping the trip was that it was not possible to schedule a meeting with President Barack Obama. According to the White House, Netanyahu was in fact invited to meet the president and the adminstration only learned of the cancelation through the media.

Initially, sources at Netanyahu’s bureau said the Prime Minister’s Office explored the possibility of moving up Netanyahu’s arrival in the U.S. capital to March 18, ahead of the AIPAC conference and the president’s historical visit to Cuba on the same day, but that despite contact with the White House on the matter, no appropriate time was found for the meeting. As a result, Netanyahu decided not to attend the AIPAC event.

But an outraged White House claimed the opposite was true. Ned Price, the spokesman for the National Security Council at the White House, said that two weeks ago Netanyahu was offered a meeting with Obama on March 18.

“We were looking forward to hosting the bilateral meeting, and we were surprised to first learn via media reports  that the Prime Minister, rather than accept our invitation, opted to cancel his visit,” he said. “Reports that we were not able to accommodate the Prime Minister’s schedule are false.”

Following the Americans’ angry response, sources at Netanyahu’s bureau clarified that the prime minister decided not to go to Washington at the height of the presidential primaries as U.S. presidential candidates from both parties were set to attend the AIPAC conference and had requested meetings with Netanyahu, something that could create the impression of intervention by the prime minister in support of one or another candidate.
“We wanted to prevent such a situation,” a source at Netanyahu’s bureau said.
Sources in the prime minister’s bureau also noted that another factor leading to the cancelation was the fact that talks to reach agreement on a new U.S. military aid package for Israel have yet to yield results, with the two sides still in disagreement over the terms.

“Netanyahu appreciates President Obama’s willingness to meet him in Washington on Friday ahead of the conference and before the president’s trip to Cuba,” said the source. Instead of addressing the conference in person, Netanyahu will give a speech via a satellite link.

According to the prime minister’s bureau, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Ron Dermer expressed Netanyahu’s appreciation of Obama’s willingness to meet with him should he decide to travel to Washington during a meeting at the White House last Friday.

However, it said, Dermer also noted that there was a good chance that the prime minister would not get to Washington, and that a final answer would be given on Monday after he discussed the matter with the prime minister.
Monday night’s reports that Obama was unwilling to meet with Netanyahu were wrong, the bureau said, adding that following the reports it had formally updated the U.S. administration that Netanyahu would not be travelling to Washington.

On the backdrop of tensions surrounding the cancellation of Netanyahu’s visit to the U.S., Vice President Biden will arrive in Israel Tuesday. Biden will arrive in the late afternoon and will meet former President Shimon Peres. On Wednesday, Biden will meet with Netanyahu and with President Reuven Rivlin. Later in the day he will travel to Ramallah and meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.