PA sees Iran deal as precedent for Palestine

President Abbas meets President Obama, at Obama’s invitation, White House May 28, 2009 in Washington DC. Photo by Michael Reynolds-Pool/Getty Images

Israel-US tensions on Iran prompt Palestinian strategy

Palestinians are adapting their strategy to the Iranian deal, proposing to use the same P5+1 model for negotiations on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and also an international supervision mechanism on the borders.

By Uri Savir, Al Monitor / AL Monitor
April 19, 2015

The losing party at the Iran framework agreement is perhaps the Palestinians. At least this is how they see it.

A senior Palestinian Authority official told Al-Monitor about the feelings prevailing in Ramallah regarding the Lausanne understandings. He said, “The Iranians outsmarted the Americans in the negotiations — they are manipulative and conniving. [US President Barack] Obama was determined to make a deal preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, as part of his legacy. A Palestinian state in the eyes of the Americans is less glorious than preventing nuclear armament of a Muslim country.”

He added bitterly, “They made a deal with the godfather of Hamas but not with Fatah. We know the Iranians well — they will outsmart the Americans also in the implementation stage and, if it’s in their interest, they will secretly advance to a nuclear weapon.”

The official said the biggest disappointment for them with the deal is that the international community will be focusing from now on throughout 2015 almost solely on the finalization of the Iran agreement, on US and Iranian domestic efforts to respectively approve it and on the beginning of implementation.

He did, however, see a silver lining. “This is the first time in decades that the Israeli lobby was defeated in Washington. Israel-US relations have never been so bad and we will use it to our advantage and bring the Palestinian statehood issue back to the forefront again.”

The source outlined several layers of the strategy that is being conceived in Ramallah, based on the Palestinian perception of the situation after Lausanne.

As a first step, Palestine will engage in a dialogue with the State Department to advocate that a deal on Palestine should be considered as complementary — and not contradictory — to a deal on Iran, given that Arab public opinion is more interested in Palestinian statehood than in Iranian hegemony in the region.

At the same time, Palestine will impress on the Americans, Russians, Chinese and the Europeans its readiness for a P5+1 framework model for the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, in parallel to the French efforts on a UN Security Council resolution initiative.

Also, the Palestinians intend to fully co-ordinate these policies with Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

The strategic plan would also push forward the Palestinian perception on the issue of international supervision: Like in the Iranian deal, Palestine would be ready for international supervision of the security clauses that will be included in a future agreement on a Palestinian state.

The P5+1 group: European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton (3rd L) delivers a statement during a ceremony from L, British Foreign Secretary William Hague, Germany’s Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (the + 1), Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Russia‘s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius (L-R) at the United Nations in Geneva November 24, 2013. Photo by Denis Balibouse / Reuters

The Palestinian official had just returned from a visit to Riyadh to discuss economic assistance for the West Bank and Gaza Strip. He recounted that the Saudis, in co-ordination with Egypt, have decided to present a cautious public position on the Iranian agreement. While internal Saudi analysis sharply criticizes the agreement, which is viewed as playing into the hands of the Iranians and their “regional dominance” strategy, publicly Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud has decided to take a more balanced position. The Saudi Council of Ministers issued a statement expressing its hope that the agreement could contribute to regional and international stability. Egypt formally welcomed the agreement the day after its conclusion on April 2.

According to the Palestinian source, both Saudi Arabia and Egypt want to distance themselves from the strong anti-Obama position of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Egypt is satisfied that US arms exports to it have been given the green light again. The Saudis are interested in US support for their struggle against the Iranian-sponsored Shi’ite Houthis in Yemen.

The pragmatic Sunni axis of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Palestine is prone to continue working with the Obama administration, despite the Iran agreement, to strengthen these countries’ positions in the struggle against the irredentist — mostly Shi’ite and jihadist — terror organizations. They have become part of Obama’s collective military and diplomatic efforts in the region (fighting the Islamic State), together with the European Union. These countries are focused on guaranteeing the stability of their authoritarian regimes and maintaining their joint axis-dominance in the region. This axis also considers Palestinian statehood as highly important and is encouraged by the deterioration of US-Israeli relations, which they intend to exploit. All heads of the Gulf states have been invited to Camp David for talks with Obama in the near future.

A senior State Department official told Al-Monitor that the administration was encouraged by the reactions of the pragmatic Arab countries to the Iran agreement and that the president and secretary of state intend to continue the dialogue with them on the issue, especially with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. According to the source, the goals of the United States with regard to the agreement are to prevent Iran from developing nuclear arms and not to change alliances in the region. Its main allies remain Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

As to the Palestinian issue, the source told Al-Monitor that the establishment of a Palestinian state in security alongside Israel was still a priority. “Obama has reformed US diplomacy by creating bridges to important parts of the world that were formerly unfriendly to the US — such as Iran, Cuba and the Arab world — without sacrificing its fundamental alliances. A Palestinian state could still become part of his legacy, as it is also very much in Israel’s interest of maintaining its democratic and Jewish character.” Yet, she added, “For a viable peace process to be renewed it would take ‘three to tango,’ and today we barely have one party.”