Labour's Herzog tipped as next PM
Here is a small selection of the mass of articles on the Israeli election March 27.
1) Reuters: Last polls give centre-left opposition solid lead before Israel’s election;
2) Times of Israel: Is Netanyahu about to lose the election?;
3) i24: Israeli election: Final polls show the tables are turning on Netanyahu;
4) Ynet: Herzog: Netanyahu ignored social protest, an irredeemable sin;
5) Ha’aretz: Latest political summary,Zionist Camp maintaining its lead;
[
Isaac Herzog (C) is escorted by bodyguards during a campaign stop at a fruit and vegetable market in Lod near Tel Aviv March 3, 2015. Photo by Nir Elias / Reuters
Last polls give centre-left opposition solid lead before Israel’s election
By Luke Baker, Reuters blog
March 13, 2015
Israel’s centre-left opposition is poised for an upset victory in next week’s parliamentary election, with the last opinion polls before Tuesday’s vote giving it a solid lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party.
Final polls published by Israel’s Channel 10 and Channel 2 on Friday evening respectively predicted the Zionist Union would win 24 and 26 seats against 20 and 22 for Netanyahu’s Likud, echoing earlier surveys which all gave the opposition a clear lead.
Polls in two of Israel’s leading newspapers predicted the Zionist Union would secure 25 or 26 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, against 21 or 22 for Likud. All polls in the past three days have given the same margin of victory.
No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel’s 67-year history
, making coalition-building critical to the formation of a government.
Netanyahu’s campaign focus on security issues and the threat from Iran’s nuclear program has failed to inspire voters, who consistently say that economic issues, including soaring house prices and the high cost-of-living, are their chief concerns.
Because there are more parties on the right and far-right of the political spectrum, he had been expected to be able to cobble together a coalition more easily than the center-left, even if he narrowly loses the vote.
But there was positive news for the Zionist Union on that score too, with a poll of Israeli-Arabs showing the overwhelming majority would favor their united Arab party joining a centre-left coalition government.
The survey showed 71 percent thought the Joint Arab List, which groups four Arab parties and enhances their electoral clout, should sign up with the Zionist Union, while 16 percent said it should support the coalition from the outside.
With the Joint Arab List expected to win 13 to 15 seats, it has become an important player in the election – it could end up being the third largest group in parliament, giving a powerful voice to Israel’s 20 percent Arab minority.
If the Zionist Union, jointly led by Labour party leader Isaac Herzog and former justice minister Tzipi Livni, wins, it is expected to link up with the far-left Meretz party (five or six seats) and the centrist, secular Yesh Atid (13 seats).
With the Arab list on side too, it would need the support of just one more party with around five or six seats to cross the threshold of 61 and form a coalition.
That said, while the arithmetic is possible, it is still challenging. Israel’s coalition-building is a messy and convoluted game that can spring surprises at the last minute.
POST-ELECTION BATTLE
When he called this election in December, Netanyahu looked to be in a commanding position and set for a fourth term. But the past three months have exposed vulnerabilities in his armor after nine years in power spread over three terms.
His much-criticized speech to the U.S. Congress on March 3 appears to have marked a turning point. Rather than giving him an electoral boost, with his face on primetime TV, polls turned against him shortly after the event.
He has relentlessly attacked Herzog, a man of small stature with a reedy, slightly high-pitched voice. But Herzog has countered with a quick sense of humor and sharp intellect.
With the conflict with the Palestinians barely mentioned, there are signs that voters are growing fed up with Netanyahu’s hard-charging style of leadership. One poll published on Friday showed 72 percent of Israelis say a change is needed.
In the past two days, Netanyahu has talked more about economic issues and his ideas for bringing housing prices down, but it may be too little, too late. Earlier this week he said there was a “real danger” he could lose and he took a similar line in an interview on Friday, urging his supporters to vote.
“Don’t stay at home and don’t waste your votes,” he said on local radio, sounding as though he was suffering from a cold.
“I will not be elected if the gap is not closed and there is a real danger that Tzipi and Bougie will form the next government,” he said, referring to Herzog by his nickname.
Additional reporting by Ori Lewis
Poll shows Herzog maintaining lead
By JTA
March 13, 2015
A survey in advance of Israel’s general elections showed the Zionist Union leading the Likud by four seats.
The poll of 1,032 voters, conducted this week by Yedioth Ahronoth and published Friday ahead of the March 17 vote, had the centre-left Zionist Union, led by Isaac Herzog and Tzippi Livni, clinching 26 seats in parliament compared to 22 seats for Benjamin Netanyahu’s centre-right Likud party.
The poll conducted by the Mina Tzemach polling firm has a 2.5 percent margin of error and is consistent with other polls that showed the Zionist Union maintaining similar leads over the Likud.
A survey published Thursday by Haaretz had Likud with 21 seats compared to Zionist Union’s 24 seats. That poll, which had a 3-percent margin of error, was conducted by the Dialog polling firm among 714 respondents.
In the Yedioth poll, the third-largest party after Likud was the United Arab List with 13 seats, followed by the right-wing Jewish Home with 12 and the secularist Yesh Atid party, which also received 12 seats.
This year’s election is the first time that Israel’s three large Arab parties united into one electoral bloc.
The Orthodox Sephardic Shas Party and its Ashkenazi counterpart, United Torah Judaism, got six and seven seats respectively in the Yedioth poll. Eight seats went to Moshe Kachlon’s centrist Kulanu party.
Is Netanyahu about to lose the election?
Its campaign has grown frantic, its activists are moribund. And though it would be wrong to bury the ruling Likud party, its supporters are right to be worried
By Haviv Rettig Gur, Times of Israel
March 12, 2015
The Likud party is losing the election. That’s not the assessment of pollsters or analysts but of Likud itself, which has spent much of the last few days in an increasingly frantic scramble to warn right-wing voters that voting for any other right-wing party could lead to a left-wing government.
“We might wake up in a week and find that Tzipi [Livni] and [Isaac] Boujie [Herzog] are prime ministers of Israel,” Netanyahu himself warned in a campaign video Wednesday after multiple polls showed Likud dropping to 21 seats while the rival centre-left Zionist Union rose to 24 and even 25.
That scenario is “a real danger,” warned Likud MK Yisrael Katz.
“When the right was split in 1992, it brought the Oslo Accords. In 1999, it brought the [Ehud] Barak government,” a Likud statement warned ominously, urging supporters of Jewish Home, Shas, Kulanu and other parties to switch to the center-right mainstay in order to avoid a similar calamity.
So is it true? Is Likud, the ruling party for six straight years, now in danger of losing the election? And is the storied Labor Party, which leads the Zionist Union slate but has not won an election in 16 years, finally poised for a comeback?
The short answer: Likud’s situation is indeed precarious, but as of the most recent polls, and assuming its decline stops at or near the current level, it is still the front-runner in the race.
To understand why this is so, one has to fast-forward to 10 p.m. on Tuesday, when the ballot boxes are finally closed, the campaign volunteers cease their canvassing, the hail of text messages urging voters to cast their ballot peters out, and a radically new game begins. It is the moment when the rhetoric ends and the politics begin.
If the results of Election Day are similar to the results of the average of the last five polls, as compiled by Project 61 — Zionist Union, 24; Likud, 22; Joint (Arab) List, 13; Jewish Home, 12; Yesh Atid, 12; Kulanu, 9; Shas, 8; United Torah Judaism, 6; Yisrael Beytenu, 5; Meretz, 5; Yachad, 4 — then a few hard political realities are clear.
One: A left-wing coalition cannot be formed.
The most natural coalition of Zionist Union-Yesh Atid-Meretz yields just 41 seats, 20 short of the 61-seat majority.
The Arab Joint List won’t save this coalition. For one thing, its 13 seats (assuming no last-minute spike in turnout, something some pollsters say is actually likely to happen) only bring the leftist coalition to 54 seats. For another, the Joint List is anything but united. The nationalists of Balad clash profoundly with the socialists of Hadash, and are likely to splinter the list rather than support a coalition led by Zionists, even if they are left-wing Zionists.
A left-wing coalition will need bolstering from the ultra-Orthodox parties, the centrist Kulanu or even Yisrael Beytenu to obtain a majority. But each of these options creates as many problems as it solves. In each case, a party is being asked to overstep one of its major political taboos. The ultra-Orthodox have said repeatedly they will not join a coalition with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid – and since their primary demand for joining the coalition will be the dismantling of Lapid’s signature ultra-Orthodox enlistment reform from the last government, it’s hard to see how Lapid could sit with them even if they agreed. As for Herzog: Winning the 14 seats of the ultra-Orthodox while losing the 12 of Yesh Atid does not bring him much closer to victory.
Yisrael Beytenu and Kulanu will have a similar problem joining such a coalition. Namely, that neither can afford to be the party that allows the establishment of a government that relies for its survival on anti-Zionist Arab lawmakers. If Herzog cobbles together a majority of 61 MKs, Kulanu’s Moshe Kahlon and Yisrael Beytenu’s Avigdor Liberman will likely add their combined 14 seats to make that majority impregnable. But they will not willingly become the enablers of a government propped up by political forces they consider anathema. And as with the Haredi-Lapid conundrum, here, too, Herzog’s choices aren’t great. Rejecting the Arab list’s 13 supporting votes (assuming he can bring in all 13 in the first place) in favour of Kahlon and Liberman’s 14 will only advance him by one.
The best-case scenario for Herzog, then, is a coalition made up of Zionist Union, ultra-Orthodox parties, Meretz, Kulanu and Yisrael Beytenu (for the purposes of simplifying, we’re leaving out some other challenges posed by such a coalition, such as Liberman’s and Meretz’s mutual vows to not sit together in any coalition), for a total of 57, just shy of success.
Again, if he then calls upon Arab votes to put him over the top, he almost certainly risks losing Liberman, and quite possibly Kahlon as well.
Two: Likud’s path to a coalition is within reach, even with its latest decline.
A more-or-less staunch right-wing coalition of Likud, Jewish Home, ultra-Orthodox parties, Kulanu, Yisrael Beytenu and Yachad comes to 66 seats.
With the exception of some tensions between Yisrael Beytenu and the ultra-Orthodox over the draft bill and other issues related to religion and state, there are no major political taboos or ideological hurdles to forming such a coalition.
Three: The known unknowns all favour Herzog.
If that were the end of the story, Likud would not be in a very real panic. Before right-wingers breathe that sigh of relief, a few potentially decisive caveats are in order.
Every election in recent years has seen a surprise rally of four to six seats on Election Day – and never on the right. The Pensioner’s Party rallied from two seats to seven in 2006, Tzipi Livni’s Kadima from 25 to 28 on the last day of the 2009 race, Lapid’s Yesh Atid from 14 to 19 in 2013.
Every single political actor in this election – including and especially Netanyahu – has spent the past week redoing the math for a Herzog-led coalition with a five-seat Election Day boost.
The left’s ground game is noticeably better than the right’s. In past years, left-wing parties proved mostly incompetent in mobilizing volunteers and activating their base to urge like-minded voters to the polls. This year, with groups such as V15 and a host of other grassroots initiatives deploying many thousands of activists to canvass areas where left-wing voters live, that trend has been decidedly reversed.
The right has railed against the (now certifiably legal) foreign funding these groups have drawn, but has failed to do what it once did best – to respond in kind. The legions of national-religious youth and right-wing activist organizations that flooded the streets of past elections are noticeably absent this time around. With so few seats missing from a left-led coalition, this gap in the get-out-the-vote arms race could prove decisive.
Likud’s decline may continue. This article paints a fairly rosy picture of Likud’s situation because this writer chose to use an average of five recent polls to offset possible statistical fluctuations. But the latest poll in the average is worse for Likud than the earliest one. If the decline of recent days proves to be a trend, rather than a statistical blip, Election Day could prove sobering indeed for the ruling party.
Four: There are limits to President Reuven Rivlin’s ability to force a unity government.
There has been a great deal of talk in this election about the possibility that President Rivlin might force Netanyahu and Herzog into forming a unity government with a rotating premiership. How? Simply by telling each that if they don’t agree to a unity government, he’ll offer the first chance at forming a coalition to the other.
The problem for Herzog is clear: as long as he remains five to eight seats short of any possible coalition, Netanyahu can simply call Rivlin’s bluff, Herzog will get his 60 days (45 plus two weeks’ extension) to try to cobble together a coalition, and then, if Herzog fails, the president will be left with little choice — either call a new election just two months after the last one, or give Netanyahu alone the chance to form a coalition.
Given the caveats listed above, it’s not clear Netanyahu will want to take that chance. It depends on how far Herzog is from a potential coalition after Election Day, and, in no small part, on Netanyahu’s political courage. In any case, Netanyahu’s insistence that he would decline a unity government under any circumstances may soon be put to the test.
If the political winds continue to tilt in Herzog’s favour in the coming days, Netanyahu, Israel’s second-longest-serving prime minister, may soon rue the haste with which he toppled his third government last December and turned to the Israeli voter to ask for a fourth.
Israeli election: Final polls show the tables are turning on Netanyahu
Projections unanimously show centre-left Zionist Union leads by four seats; 72% of Israelis ‘want a change’
By i24 (audio)
March 13, 2014
Four days to go and the tables might be turning on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party as all the final polls unanimously show the center-left Zionist Union to be leading by four points over the Prime Minister’s party.
The very last poll before Tuesday’s election, conducted by Channel 10 News, projected Isaac Herzog’s faction to garner 24 parliamentary seats, compared to Likud’s 20.
According to the final poll of The Jerusalem Post and its Hebrew sister publication Maariv Sof Hashavua on Wednesday and Thursday the Zionist Union took the lead over the Likud, 25 Knesset seats to 21.
News site Ynet’s last poll, published on Friday, predicted the Zionist Union would win on March 17 election with 26 seats while the Likud would win only 22 seats.
The Haaretz daily published its final poll on Thursday, showing the Zionist Union pulling 24 Knesset seats, three more than the Likud.
The polls also agree that the Joint (Arab) List would win 13 seats to become the third largest party on the 20th Knesset.
Although a win in the ballots does not necessarily mean the winning party and its leader would be tasked by the president with assembling the new government, according to the Jerusalem Post’s poll the majority of the Israeli public wants to see a change in the regime, with seventy-two percent of respondents saying they wanted a change compared to 20% who did not.
A majority also said the country was going in the wrong direction on socioeconomic issues and international relations. Asked if they want Netanyahu to continue to head the government, 48% said no and 41% said yes.
“Netanyahu and Herzog”
The poll also predicted Yesh Atid party was set to win 13 seats, the Jewish Home 11, social-oriented Kulanu 10, ultra-Orthodox Shas seven and United Torah Judaism six, five each for leftist Meretz and Yahad, and only four for Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu. Twelve percent of respondents were undecided.
The poll of 1,305 respondents representing a statistical sample of the Israeli population has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Feeling the heat, once confident Netanyahu told the Post on Thursday he had no doubt he would win. Asked whether he would quit politics if he lost, he told the Post, “I am not dealing with retirement. I am dealing with victory.”
Netanyahu also warned against splitting the vote across the right wing bloc.
“Whoever wants me as prime minister – which is the majority of the pubic – must vote for my party,” he said in an interview with the Walla news site. “If they don’t they’ll get a left-wing government,” he added.
“Neither [Yisrael Beiteinu head Avigdor] Lieberman nor [Kulanu head Moshe] Kahlon have committed to not going with the left,” Netanyahu added.
Herzog reacted to the positive polls’ results, saying he would replace Netanyahu while ruling out a rotation in the Prime Minister’s Office with him. He accused the prime minister of panicking.
“Netanyahu failed, and he admits his failures,” Herzog told Channel 2. “I plan to replace him. I am focused on winning the elections and bringing hope to the State of Israel.”
Former president Shimon Peres on Thursday announced his endorsement of Herzog to be the next prime minister, calling him “a cool-headed leader who has maintained his honesty and is full of responsibility and dedication to the Israeli public.”
“I am convinced that Isaac Herzog is worthy to be prime minster and that he will be a leader who knows how to bridge the gaps and unite Israeli society with the glue of solidarity and hope,” Peres said.
Meanwhile financial monthly The Economist urged Israeli voters to vote Netanyahu out of office in an editorial, calling the Israeli prime minister devious, reckless, and brazen.
In the editorial, headlined “Bibi’s a bad deal,” the newspaper put its support behind Herzog, saying that while he is not charismatic, he deserves a chance.
Herzog: Netanyahu ignored social protest, an irredeemable sin
‘He hasn’t spoken about housing for six years, blamed Olmert and all of a sudden he says he’s responsible. The prime minister owes the public answers,’ Zionist Union leader says.
By Moran Azulay, Ynet news
March 14, 2015
Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog, the only other leading contender for the post of prime minister, slammed incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, after the prime minister said last week that he would handle with the housing crisis during his next term.
“I heard him say that he identified the crisis in housing a long time ago and that he would fix it next time. The fact he ignored social protests in the past few years is a sin that cannot be redeemed,” Herzog said during a cultural event in Rishon LeZion.
“He hasn’t spoken about housing for six years, laid the blame on (former PM Ehud) Olmert and all of a sudden he says he’s responsible. So on which Netanyahu are we talking about? The prime minister needs to provide the public with answers. I expect a leader who intends to lead to provide the public with answers and not evade or escape. He’s been hiding throughout the entire elections campaign. He didn’t confront the problems or discuss them,” he went on to say.
The Zionist Union leader said there was no doubt Iran’s nuclear program was a strategic threat, but that there is disagreement on how to deal with this threat. Netanyahu’s way, Herzog said, “did not yield results, it only made things more complicated.”
He criticized Netanyahu’s decision to accept an invitation from the Republican party to speak in front of the US Congress on Iran, which was made without first consulting with the White House.
“Imagine if the Knesset invited the leader of a friendly state without the government and the prime minister being involved in the process. Would anyone have accepted that? It’s incomprehensible.”
Discussing voting patterns, Herzog said that Jews who immigrated to Israel from the Soviet Union used to vote for right-wing parties but that now, things have changed. “We’re seeing a change in a public that used to be deeply rooted in the right-wing. Today they seek a change and a better life, the ability to buy an apartment under reasonable conditions and to make a decent living, but the cost of living is killing them.”
He rallied his supporters, telling them the party’s recent lead in the polls did not mean the elections were over.
“I don’t think we can determine that the elections are over. The final days are crucial and in order to replace Netanyahu, I need a considerable mandate from the public,” Herzog said.
He stressed that the Zionist Union party needed to expand its gap over the Likud party. “I need to have a clear and certain gap so that I could form a significant coalition, because this is almost our last chance to change the way the country looks. The public is tired of Benjamin Netanyahu and his failing rule. I offer responsibility and I intend to win and for that I need significant political power. It won’t make a difference for Yesh Atid if they got one seat more or one seat less, but one seat more for the Zionist Union will have a significant impact.”
Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, speaking at the same cultural event, vowed his party will not sit in a government that doesn’t fight corruption
“A man who was convicted of a crime that involves moral turpitude could not be an MK, a minister or a mayor in Israel,” he said.
He also called for an end to “coalition funds,” money originating in a state budget surplus and directed towards purposes chosen by a party that is a member of the coalition.
“We’re the only party in the past 20 years that did not take these funds,” he claimed. “If there’s (extra) money, you need to give it to the handicapped, the blind, and whoever needs it.”
Lapid also demanded complete transparency in the activity of the Settlement Division.
Ahead of the vote on Tuesday, Lapid said that “this isn’t a game of seats. You’re going to vote based on values and all of this talk about moving seats from here to there is inappropriate and unacceptable to me.”
The Yesh Atid chairman did not spare criticism from the two main contenders for the office of prime minister – Netanyahu and Herzog. “There is a sort of a liquidation sale done on both sides. Both Netanyahu and Herzog are promising the Haredim behind the scenes that they would cancel the burden equality law,” Lapid accused.
Ha’aretz, from their running blog
March 14, 2015
The last election polls before Tuesday’s vote, published on Thursday and Friday, showed the Zionist Union of Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni maintaining its lead of between two and four seats over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. Read the full story
For Thursday’s updates, click here
Latest nnpinion and analyses: Yair Lapid’s road to premiership is paved with good intentions (Alon Idan) | Netanyahu must be thinking, what the hell was I thinking? (Yossi Verter) | Five must-reads if you want to understand the Israeli election (Haaretz)
Latest updates:
8:10 P.M. Netanyahu and Herzog spar on Jerusalem, Iran
Although an official one-on-one debate between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main contender Isaac Herzog has not taken place in the run-up to Election Day, the two politicians did briefly exchange words on Saturday on Channel 2’s Meet the Press.
The programme’s host Rina Mazliah, who interviewed the leaders of the largest parties one after the other, had finished interviewing Herzog in the studio and welcomed Netanyahu, who was speaking remotely.
When offered to present Herzog with any question he’d like, Netanyahu asked: “Why did they [Herzog and Tzipi Livni] condemn the construction in Jerusalem? Why don’t they offer support when I am fighting to remove threats like the Iranian nuclear weapons? Why do they refuse to say they stand behind the immense security effort we are undertaking?” (Haaretz) Read the full story
5:35 P.M. Ex-Balad leader Bishara says Joint List should have signed surplus votes deal with Meretz
Azmi Bishara, the founder of the Israel Arab party Balad, said that an agreement on redistribution of surplus ballots with Meretz would have been a positive step and that he would have recommended signing one had he been asked.
Bishara, who resides in Qatar after fleeing Israel in 2007 to escape prosecution on charges of aiding an enemy in wartime, said that reaching such a deal was an issue of pragmatism as it would have maximized votes for anti-Netanyahu parties.
Bishara was speaking to the Arabs48 website, which is considered sympathetic to Balad. His words came in response to claims that he had led the opposition to such an agreement with Meretz. “I’m not involved and follow things from a distance. Creating the Joint List was an essential step in order to get people to vote. Instead of attacking one another as separate parties, the joint party should encourage people to go out and vote in unity.”
Bishara estimated that toppling Netanyahu’s government is possible not because of the collapse of the diplomatic process but because of the Israeli premier becoming personally objectionable to large segments of Israeli society and due to the crisis he created with the U.S. He added that Herzog is no Rabin and will not be able to form a government based on Arab MKs, so that a national unity government is a realistic scenario following the elections. (Haaretz)
3:30 P.M. Meretz leader warns left-wing voters not to vote tactically for Zionist Union
Meretz leader Zehava Galon, addressing the issue of voting based on one’s sympathy to blocs of parties rather than specific ones at a public event in Holon, warned that “if Meretz disappears from the Knesset there will be no change in goverment and Herzog will not be prime minister.”
Speaking of the chances for forming a left-centrist government, she said that the “concept of voting for the bigger party is based on a falsehood. It’s not true that the forming of a government will be based on the largest party. If Meretz voters cast their ballots for the Zionist Camp instead of Meretz, Meretz will not enter the Knesset and the bloc will lose four seats. Without Meretz in the Knesset recommending that Herzog form the next government there is no chance that he will be charged with the task.” (Haaretz)
2:50 P.M. Herzog: Netanyahu’s disregard for housing crisis an “‘unforgivable sin”
The head of the Zionist Camp, Yitzhak Herzog, said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s disregard for Israel’s housing crisis is an “unforgivable sin”. Elaborating on the housing crisis, Herzog said that he “heard Bibi saying that he identified the crisis early on and that he would fix it next time around. I want to clarify – his ignoring of this issue for four years is unpardonable. Even if he repeatedly asks forgiveness and promises to change things, the public has no reason to believe him.” Herzog’s comments were made at a Saturday public gathering in Rishon LeZion.
Herzog added that “the public is fed up with Netanyahu and his failed government. Former residents of the Soviet Union who were previously identified with the right are now looking for a change and an improvement in their quality of life.”
Zionist Union’s co-leader also addressed voting strategies in the upcoming election, saying that one more or one less Knesset seat for Yesh Atid would not make a difference on the overall result, whereas increasing the Zionist Union’s lead over Likud would significantly affect Israel’s future. (Haaretz)
1:45 P.M. Likud’s Erdan: Public must demand to know who Kahlan, Lieberman will recommend for PM
Interior Minister Gilad Erdan, speaking at a saturday campaign event, demanded that Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party and Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu declare who they will recommend for prime minister after the election. “The public must get answers from these two regarding the recommendations they will make to President Rivlin as to their choice for Prime Minister. The Likud is concerned by Kahlon’s candidate for Defense Minister Yoav Galant’s statements which indicated that Kahlon will close a deal with Herzog. Thus, voting Kahlon will bring a left-wing government headed by Herzog and Livni.” (Haaretz)
1:30 P.M. Zionist Camp’s defence candidate slams PM for lack of “strategic process”
The Zionist Camp’s candidate for defenxe minister, Amos Yadlin, stated at a public event on Saturday that “Israel is stuck with a frightened and out-of-touch leader. Netanyahu has not initiated any strategic process that would address and solve Israel’s problems. What mainly interests Netanyahu is his own political survival. As a citizen of Israel I’m ashamed that hardly anyone around the world believes our Prime Minister.”
Yadlin added that “anyone whose concept is one of a government that includes Yair Lapid must vote for the Zionist Camp, since the more Knesset seats it wins, the easier it will be for Lapid and Kahlon to make the right choice the day after the elections. Any ballot cast other than for Herzog is in practice a vote for Netanyahu.” (Haaretz)
Israeli vote in balance as campaigning draws to close
By AFP / Daily Mail
March 14, 2015
Three days ahead of Israel’s general election, there was growing uncertainty on Saturday over who will win the premiership, with polls showing incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu trailing his centre-left rivals.
The final two surveys released Friday night by private television channels gave the Zionist Union, headed by Labour leader Isaac Herzog, a four-seat lead over Netanyahu’s Likud.
A poll by Channel 10 showed Likud winning 20 seats, compared with 24 for the Zionist Union, while a survey issued by Channel 2 also showed Likud four seats behind, 22 to 26.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses Likud supporters during an election campaign meeting in Netanya, on March 11, 2015 ©Jack Guez (AFP)
The results echoed surveys released earlier Friday — the final day that opinion polls could legally be published before Tuesday’s election — which both predicted a win for the Zionist Union.
But Israel’s complex electoral system, where many parties are vying for power, means the task of forming a new government does not automatically fall to the winning candidate or list.
Israel’s new premier will be the one who can build a coalition commanding a majority of at least 61 seats in the 120-strong Knesset.
That task will be all the harder as there are at least 11 party lists to reckon with from across the political spectrum as well as ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties.
Under the proportional system, voters choose party lists rather than individual candidates, with seats distributed according to the percentage of the vote received.
Analysts believe the next three days will be crucial, as 20 percent of voters have said they are undecided.
But it could take weeks of negotiations before the name of the new prime minister is known.
Friday’s polls had put The Joint List, a newly formed alliance of Israel’s main Arab parties, in third place, with 13 seats and predicted that the centre-right Yesh Atid could win 12 seats.
Although consistently trailing in the polls, Netanyahu has come out fighting, and analysts say he may be better placed than Herzog to form a coalition.
– Right wing rally on Sunday –
On Channel 2’s “Meet the Press” programme Saturday night, the two came face-to-face — albeit with Netanyahu appearing by video link.
Their brief exchange focused on security and diplomatic issues.
Campaigning is due to close on Sunday night with a major rally in Tel Aviv by right-wing parties — a week after the centre-left mobilised thousands of supporters in the coastal city.
It is not clear if Netanyahu, who is trying to clinch a third consecutive term in office, will attend Sunday’s rally.
But the feisty prime minister has stepped up public appearances in recent days, giving interviews to major newspapers and television channels to push the centrepiece of his campaign: security.
Netanyahu has warned that a win by the Zionist Union — a coalition of Herzog’s Labour party and centrist HaTnuah of former chief peace negotiator with the Palestinians Tzipi Livni — would affect security.
On Thursday he told the Jerusalem Post daily that a Zionist Union victory “will cause such a monumental shift in policy that it is a danger, and anyone who wants to stop it has to vote Likud to narrow the gap.”
The premier warned such a result would mean Israel having to share Jerusalem with the Palestinians, who want to set up the capital of their future state in the mostly Arab eastern part of city Israel considers it eternal capital.
“I am not dealing with retirement. I am dealing with victory,” Netanyahu said.
The Zionist Union has said if it wins Herzog and Livni would share the premiership, each serving two years.
Herzog has received endorsement by several prominent figures in Israel, including former president Shimon Peres, who said Thursday he was “level-headed”.
On Friday, Yuval Diskin, a former Shin Bet internal security agency chief, wrote on Facebook that Herzog should become the next premier “because Netanyahu has failed in almost every area”.
Herzog told Channel 2 on Saturday the election was “a choice between despair and hope”.
“The Israeli public is fed up with Netanyahu and knows that I’m the only one who can replace him,” he said.