Reckless call to the right


February 25, 2015
Sarah Benton
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The Muqataa, head office of the PA, Ramallah, rebuilt after it was shelled by the IDF in 2002.

Right wing votes drive Netanyahu’s moves against the Palestinian Authority

By Philip Sweigart FMEP
February 24, 2015

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s headline-grabbing plans to address Congress have dominated the news cycle for nearly a month. But there’s a far more consequential and unnoticed development taking place in Israel/Palestine right now: the slow-motion collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA), driven by Netanyahu’s refusal to release PA customs revenues.

Expressing concerns on Saturday about the PA’s “continued viability,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is the latest in a growing chorus of voices that are warning of dire consequences if the PA dissolves. He is joined by the Israeli military, which raised the alarm that the PA’s imminent collapse could allow terrorist groups to gain a foothold in the West Bank.

For its part, the PA has reported a 70 percent drop in its income, and warned Sunday that the PA soon might not be able to purchase fuel for police cars and other public security vehicles. Coming on the heels of five years of recession, not to mention ongoing and tightening Israeli restrictions on many economic-related aspects of life on the West Bank, this latest cutoff of funds threatens to be a mortal blow to the PA.

Netanyahu and his ministers have been silent on the issue of PA insolvency, even as they remain adamant about withholding the PA’s customs revenues, which Israel collects on its behalf. The financial blockade was originally meant to punish Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for joining the International Criminal Court, where Israel fears it could face prosecution for war crimes.

Maybe removing the PA and Mahmoud Abbas would be in line with Netanyahu’s long-term strategy, which might include various plans for direct Israeli rule over the entire West Bank. But a more frightening possibility is that Israel’s moves against the PA are the result of short-term calculations intended to maximize Netanyahu’s chances in the upcoming Israeli election.

Netanyahu’s Likud party is locked in a tight race against his bitter rivals on the center-left, the Zionist Camp coalition, with each predicted to win 22-24 seats in the next parliament. If he releases the tax funds now, Netanyahu is concerned that he could look soft and indecisive on the Palestinian issue and may lose votes to the more right-wing Jewish Home party. That would undermine his power base, increasing the chance that the Zionist Camp would emerge as the largest party in the Knesset, and therefore be asked to form the next government.

In this context, as the PA moves closer to collapse and the West Bank begins to heat up, Netanyahu might calculate that a steadfast position on withholding tax revenue and a muscular response to any West Bank unrest better protects his political position than taking steps to diffuse the tension – a calculation that might extend for weeks beyond election day on March 17th, as Israeli parties begin the process of horse-trading to form a coalition. That’s a recipe for more escalation and possibly bloodletting.

This is not the first time that an Israeli politician’s pandering to the right wing has made an escalation in the conflict with the Palestinians more likely. Before the 2000 elections, future Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon visited the Temple Mount under armed guard, in a provocative move that inflamed Palestinian passions. From a national perspective, Sharon’s move was a disaster, contributing to the outbreak of the Second Intifada in which hundreds of Israelis and thousands of Palestinians were killed. But from an electoral perspective it was a success, galvanizing right-wing support behind Sharon.

Predicting the next intifada is a fool’s errand, and there may be limits to the extent to which Netanyahu can ignore the Palestinian issue, even in the midst of a political campaign. But so far, those limits have not materialized, and the more Netanyahu’s political position weakens, the greater the danger that his brinkmanship with right-wing parties on the Palestinian issue will spill over into catastrophe.

Philip Sweigart is a Policy Analyst at the Foundation for Middle East Peace.

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