Making up the Iranian threat
This posting has these items:
1) Al Jazeera: Mossad contradicted Netanyahu on Iran nuclear programme;
2) Ynet news: Mossad contradicted Netanyahu on Iran nukes, says report;
3) Haaretz: Massive leak reveals South African intel on Mossad’s ‘true’ assessment on nuclear Iran;
4) NY Times: Israeli Views on Iran Diverged, Reports Say;
5) Washington Post: Report: Mossad was less alarmed than Israel premier on Iran;
It was ridiculous the first time – Netanyahu’s illustrated ‘evidence’ to the UN in 2012 of the existential threat posed by Iran’s readiness to bomb Israel. A version of this photo has been reproduced by every publication covering the story of the leaked cables – making the Prime Minister’s scare-mongering even more fatuous. Photo by Richard Drew/AP
Mossad contradicted Netanyahu on Iran nuclear programme
Spy Cables reveal Mossad concluded that Iran was not producing nuclear weapons, after PM sounded alarm at UN in 2012.
By Will Jordan, Rahul Radhakrishnan, Al Jazeera
February 23, 2015
Less than a month after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 2012 warning to the UN General Assembly that Iran was 70 percent of the way to completing its “plans to build a nuclear weapon”, Israel’s intelligence service believed that Iran was “not performing the activity necessary to produce weapons”.
A secret cable obtained by Al Jazeera’s Investigative Unit reveals that Mossad sent a top-secret cable to South Africa on October 22, 2012, that laid out a “bottom line” assessment of Iran’s nuclear work.
It appears to contradict the picture painted by Netanyahu of Tehran racing towards acquisition of a nuclear bomb.
Writing that Iran had not begun the work needed to build any kind of nuclear weapon, the Mossad cable said the Islamic Republic’s scientists are “working to close gaps in areas that appear legitimate such as enrichment reactors”.
Such activities, however, “will reduce the time required to produce weapons from the time the instruction is actually given”.
That view tracks with the 2012 US National Intelligence estimate, which found no evidence that Iran had thus far taken a decision to use its nuclear infrastructure to build a weapon, or that it had revived efforts to research warhead design that the US said had been shelved in 2003.
Netanyahu plans to address the US Congress on March 3 and warn against the nuclear compromise currently being negotiated between Tehran and world powers.
Media reports and public comments by senior current and former officials have frequently indicated dissent from within Israel’s security services over Netanyahu’s alarmist messaging on Iran.
However, the document leaked to Al Jazeera makes clear that the Mossad’s formal assessment of Iran’s nuclear capacity and intentions differs from the scenario outlined by the prime minister at the UN.
The cable was relayed to South Africa’s State Security Agency (SSA) shortly after the September 2012 address in which Netanyahu had displayed a cartoonish diagram of a bomb with a fuse, marked with a 70 percent line and another “red line” at 90 percent.
The markers represented progress milestones in Iran’s uranium enrichment work. He argued that medium-enriched uranium (which Iran had begun producing, saying it was needed to fuel a research reactor producing isotopes to fight cancer) took Iran 70 percent of the distance to enriching weapons-grade material.
The Israeli prime minister told the UN General Assembly that “by next spring, by most at next summer at current enrichment rates [Iran] will have finished the medium enrichment and move on to the final stage”, in which he said they would enrich uranium to weapons grade.
‘Not the right way’
Earlier in 2012, former Mossad chief Meir Dagan had hinted at a disagreement with Netanyahu. In an interview in March, he warned of overstating the danger of Iran’s nuclear activities and of putting Israel on a path to war with Iran.
Clayton Swisher, Al Jazeera’s Director of Investigations, discusses The Spy Cables
The spy chief said it would be a “stupid idea” to attack Iran before other options were considered. “An attack on Iran before you are exploring all other approaches is not the right way,” Dagan had said.
His comments would likely have been informed by his former agency’s analysis reflected in the document obtained by Al Jazeera.
It reveals that in October 2012, Israel’s foreign intelligence service estimated that Iran had 100 kilogrammes of uranium enriched to a level of 20 percent.
Iran expanded that stockpile over the following year, but then agreed to neutralise or destroy that material under an agreement with the US, Britain, China, Russia, France and Germany – the so-called P5+1 group.
Reports of discord between Netanyahu and the Mossad over Iran surfaced again last month amid reports – later denied – that the Israeli intelligence service had warned Washington that new US sanctions would sabotage nuclear negotiations between Iran and world powers.
Iran and the P5+1 are currently pursuing a framework pact for a permanent deal by the end of March, and a full technical agreement by the end of June. Iran insists its nuclear work is entirely for peaceful purposes; the premise of the nuclear deal currently being negotiated is to strengthen verifiable safeguards against weaponisation of nuclear material.
Mossad contradicted Netanyahu on Iran nukes, says report
Leaked cable reveals that Israeli intelligence thought Iran was much further from building nuclear weapons in 2012 than prime minister claimed in address to Congress.
By Ynetnews
February 23, 2015
Israel’s intelligence agency said in a 2012 secret report that Iran was not quickly progressing towards building nuclear bombs, according to a Guardian article published on Sunday.
According to the report, two weeks after Benjamin Netanyahu’s 2012 claim in Congress that Iran was a year away from a bomb, Mossad shared with South Africa that Iran was “not performing the activity necessary to produce weapons”.
The Guardian said the reports was one of hundreds of documents and cables leaked from the world’s intelligence services, dating from as far back as 2006 to as recently December 2014.
The alleged Mossad report from October 2012 said Iran “does not appear to be ready” to enrich uranium at a high enough level to produce nuclear weapons, but that it was moving towards technology “which will reduce the time required to produce weapons “.
The report would, if authenticated, reveal a gap between public statements by Israel’s top leaders and intelligence assessments.
The Guardian noted that Mossad and Netanyahu have had disagreements before; Meir Dagan, who ended his tenure as Mossad chief in 2010, said he had opposed an order by Netanyahu to prepare an attack on Iran.
The report in question is part of a large trove of secret communications leaked to Al Jazeera, which claimed to also possess documents showing that Mossad stole blueprints for anti-tank missiles from South Africa in 2010 and that this led to a cover-up.
The revelations come at a politically sensitive moment as the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany face a March 31 deadline to reach a deal with Iran to limit its nuclear programme in return for an easing of economic sanctions.
Iran denies seeking an atomic bomb, insisting that its nuclear programme is purely for peaceful energy purposes.
An Israeli government official told the Guardian that there was no contradiction between Netanyahu’s statements and the report, claiming both state Iran was enriching uranium to produce weapons.
The leaked documents dating from 2006 to late 2014 consist mainly of communications between South Africa’s intelligence agency and other agencies around the world, such as Britain’s MI6, Russian intelligence and the CIA.
AFP contributed to this report.
An aerial photograph showing Iran’s uranium enrichment facility just outside the city of Isfahan. Photo by AP
Massive leak reveals South African intel on Mossad’s ‘true’ assessment on nuclear Iran
Al-Jazeera says most significant release of secret documents since Snowden details intelligence information from numerous spy agencies.
By Barak Ravid, Haaretz
February 23, 2015
Isfahan nuclear facility – AP – 2005
An aerial photograph showing Iran’s uranium enrichment facility just outside the city of Isfahan. Photo by AP
Hundreds of confidential documents penned by South Africa’s intelligence agency that detail meetings with Mossad operatives on Iran’s nuclear program were obtained by Al-Jazeera and shared with the Guardian, it emerged on Monday.
The documents, part of a leak which is being referred to by Al-Jazeera as ‘The Spy Cables,’ appears to be most significant exposition of secret intelligence documents since former NSA contractor Edward Snowden revealed the breadth of American eavesdropping operations in 2013.
The documents, obtained by Al Jazeera in digital form, were passed to the Guardian as part of the co-operation between the two newspapers, the Qatari network reported.
The report said it will reveal “the Israeli Mossad’s true assessment of Iran’s nuclear program.”
The documents included detailed briefings and internal analyses written by South Africa’s State Security Agency (SSA) operatives, and document meetings the agency’s operatives held with the American CIA, British MI6, Russian FSB and other nations’ intelligence agencies, between 2006 and 2014.
The cables detailed missives from the Mossad to its allies saying that Iran was unable to produce nuclear weapons – a month after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that such capability was within a year.
They also describe attempts by the CIA to contact Hamas directly, even as the U.S. government listed the Palestinian group as a “terrorist organization.”
Israeli Views on Iran Diverged, Reports Say
By Jodi Rudoren
February 23, 2015
JERUSALEM — Shortly after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel’s dire warning at the United Nations in 2012 that Iran was a mere months away from being able to develop a nuclear bomb, Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency presented a more sober assessment that did not support Mr. Netanyahu’s timetable.
The Mossad view was in a report that was among a large trove of leaked South African intelligence service documents that were published Monday by Al Jazeera and The Guardian.
Mr. Netanyahu, in a dramatic speech in September 2012 during which he drew a red line across a cartoon bomb, said at the time that Iran was “well into the second stage” of enriching uranium and could complete the final stage “by next spring, at most by next summer.” He added ominously, “From there, it’s only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.”
But the report from Mossad, dated about three weeks later, said Iran “does not appear to be ready to enrich” uranium beyond 20 percent, the second stage, and gave no estimates for when it might do so. Separately, it said that although Iran was making “great efforts” to activate a heavy-water reactor to produce weapons-grade plutonium, “this will not happen before mid-2014.”
“When the reactor begins operation, production of plutonium will begin at a quantity sufficient to produce one bomb a year, but there will be no use for the weapons as long as there is no nuclear fuel reprocessing plant,” said the six-page document. “Bottom line: though Iran at this stage is not performing the activity necessary to produce weapons, it is working to close gaps in areas that appear legitimate, such as enrichment, reactors, which will reduce the time required to produce weapons from the time the instruction is actually given.”
The document was published as Secretary of State John Kerry met with his Iranian counterpart in Geneva to discuss a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program that Mr. Netanyahu vehemently opposes. The Israeli prime minister has alienated the Obama administration and some congressional Democrats by accepting an invitation from the Republican House speaker to speak against the deal at a joint meeting of Congress on March 3, two weeks before Israeli elections.
A senior Israeli government official took issue Monday with headlines in The Guardian and Al Jazeera claiming that Mossad “contradicted” Mr. Netanyahu’s speech, saying “there is no contradiction whatsoever.” Indeed, the Mossad summary does describe “a significant increase in the rate and efficiency of enrichment.”
The Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to do otherwise, said in a statement, “Israel believes the proposed nuclear deal with Iran is a bad deal, for it enables the world’s foremost terror state to create capabilities to produce the elements necessary for a nuclear bomb.”
Gaps between Mr. Netanyahu and Israel’s intelligence services on the Iranian nuclear threat have been aired before. Yuval Diskin, who retired in 2011 as head of Israel’s internal security agency, in April 2012 accused the government of “misleading the public” about Iran and said the leadership made decisions “based on messianic feelings.” Meir Dagan, a former Mossad chief, has also said Mr. Netanyahu’s public assessments on Iran were exaggerated.
Report: Mossad was less alarmed than Israel premier on Iran
By Associated Press / Washington Post
February 23, 2015
JERUSALEM — Israel’s Mossad spy agency in October 2012 had a less alarmist view of Iran’s nuclear program than an assessment delivered by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the United Nations just a few weeks earlier, according to a purported secret cable published Monday by two media outlets.
In a landmark speech to the United Nations in September of that year, Netanyahu had brandished a cartoon drawing of a bomb and said Iran was moving ahead with plans that would allow it to potentially build a nuclear bomb within a year or so.
But in the document published Monday by The Guardian and Al-Jazeera, the Mossad is quoted as saying “Iran at this stage is not performing the activity necessary to produce weapons.”
The news organizations said the document was an assessment shared with South African intelligence, part of a trove of leaked spy cables sent by several different intelligence agencies, including the CIA and Russian intelligence.
The British newspaper said the documents detail an attempt by the CIA to establish contact with the Islamic militant group Hamas, South Korean intelligence targeting the leader of Greenpeace and South Africa spying on Russia over a joint satellite deal. The paper said it had “independently authenticated” the cache.
An Israeli official said there was “no discrepancy” between Netanyahu’s assessment and the unverified leaks. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter on the record.
The leaks come just days before Netanyahu is scheduled to speak before the U.S. Congress about Iran’s nuclear program.
In the 2012 speech, the Israeli leader held a diagram of a cartoon-like bomb showing escalating levels of uranium enrichment. He pulled out a red marker and drew a line across what he said was a threshold which Israel could not tolerate — uranium enrichment to 90 percent, the level needed to make an atomic bomb.
“By next spring, at most by next summer at current enrichment rates, they will have finished the medium enrichment and move on to the final stage. From there, it’s only a few months, possibly a few weeks before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb,” Netanyahu said.
He said his assessment was not based on “military intelligence,” but on publicly available U.N. reports.
The purported leaked Mossad cable expresses far less urgency.
“Even though Iran has accumulated enough 5 percent enriched uranium for several bombs, and has enriched some of it to 20 percent, it does not appear to be ready to enrich it to higher levels,” the document says.
“Bottom line: though Iran at this stage is not performing the activity necessary to produce weapons, it is working to close gaps in areas that appear legitimate such as enrichment, reactors, which will reduce the time required to produce weapons from the time the instruction is actually given,” it said.
Iran reached a landmark interim nuclear deal with world powers in November 2013 under which it converted or diluted its stock of 20 percent enriched uranium. It is negotiating a final deal with the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany, with the two sides hoping to agree on a preliminary deal in March and a follow-up pact in June.
Netanyahu has differed with the Mossad in the past, most notably over the effectiveness of a potential military strike on Iran to prevent it from getting atomic weapons.
Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat to its very existence, citing Tehran’s repeated calls for Israel’s destruction, its long-range missile program and its support for violent anti-Israel groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran insists its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes like power generation and medical isotopes.
The purported leak comes amid an uproar over Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to Washington. He accepted a Republican invitation to address Congress about Iran in early March, but the speech has angered the Obama Administration because it was arranged without consulting the White House, a breach of diplomatic protocol.
The planned speech has drawn fire in Israel as well, coming just two weeks before national elections. Netanyahu has rejected the criticism, saying it is his duty to lobby against the nuclear deal.