Israelis want US to support Palestinian rights

Michael A. Cohen and Matthew Duss wrote a report about Israeli attitudes to the looming US-Israel discovery that their interests diverge. First their article in the NY Times, secondly, the poll results reported in FMEP.

Protest outside the White House in Washington, DC, against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit there, October 1, 2014. Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP

How to Talk to Israel’s Voters

By Michael A. Cohen and Matthew Duss, NY Times
February 19, 2015

The planned speech to Congress by Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on March 3 has deeply agitated American-Israeli relations. The animus between President Obama and Mr. Netanyahu has not helped, but more than a personal conflict is at stake: Each has sharply different views on how to advance his nation’s interests.

While the immediate cause of the tension is Mr. Netanyahu’s opposition to a deal over Iran’s nuclear program, the roots of disagreement lie with the prime minister’s recalcitrance on Palestinian statehood. The United States considers the creation of two states living side by side in peace and security an imperative. It is now abundantly clear that Mr. Netanyahu does not. A widening gulf over this issue will have serious implications for the United States.

The Israeli occupation of the West Bank is becoming more entrenched. The Palestinians have little interest in direct negotiations with a Netanyahu-led government they mistrust. Instead, they will likely exercise every possible lever to alter an intolerable status quo, while Israel seeks to make permanent its occupation. The United States will be stuck in the middle, under pressure to support Israel diplomatically even as Israel’s leaders pursue policies contrary to America’s stated positions, particularly on settlement expansion.

This is what makes the election of an Israeli government committed to a workable two-state solution so important for American interests. This will not be enough to ensure the achievement of a final status agreement, but it’s an essential first step. With Israelis heading to the polls on March 17, America must make clear to Israelis the consequences of electing a government opposed to this goal.

Last month, the Washington-based Foundation for Middle East Peace commissioned the Israeli firm New Wave Research to poll Israeli voters for a report on the America-Israel bilateral relationship. What we discovered suggests that the United States’ aims on this issue are in line with Israeli public opinion.

Israelis overwhelmingly believe their country depends on American support. Half of those polled think there is a crisis in relations between the two countries. More than a third think that returning Mr. Netanyahu to power will make the situation worse; and a plurality sees the center-left alliance known as the Zionist Camp as more likely than Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party to improve the situation.

The results also suggest there is an opportunity for the United States to sharpen the choice facing Israeli voters — and in a manner consistent with American policy. Three-quarters of Israelis agree that it is important that the party they will vote for moves forward in negotiating with the Palestinians; this includes the more than 60 percent of those polled who consider themselves centrist or right-leaning voters. These numbers are significantly higher than in 2012, shortly before Israel’s last election.

A majority would also support the Obama administration’s releasing its own framework for a final status agreement. Such a step could lend support to the center-left parties that Israelis believe are more likely to move forward with negotiations; it would also highlight the intransigence of Mr. Netanyahu’s government.

Half of those polled agreed that building new settlements is damaging to Israel’s legitimacy and security. Among those who hold this view, a strong majority agreed that if America were to make clear its opposition to settlement expansion, it would make them more critical of Israel, not the United States. So if, for example, the United States supported — or at least abstained from — a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning settlement expansion, it could move Israeli voters to support parties less committed to the settlement project.

We found little evidence that these moves would provoke a backlash in Israel. If anything, the opposite: 46 percent of centrist voters said that American diplomatic actions would make them more inclined to vote for a centrist or left-wing party, and an equal number said it would have no effect. In general, our polling suggests centrist Israelis are actually in broad ideological agreement with left-wing voters.

There are certainly risks for the Obama administration to appear to be interfering in Israeli domestic politics — though Mr. Netanyahu’s brazen effort to use Congress as an election prop hardly qualifies him to cry foul. The impact of any American effort to influence Israeli voters is also likely to be limited. But given Israel’s complex coalition politics, a shift of just a few seats could determine who leads the next government.

For too long, the United States has failed to impose any consequences for Israel’s pursuit of policies that America opposes. The Obama administration doesn’t need heavy-handed steps to get that point across. Rather, it should make clear to Israel’s voters the importance it attaches to American interests in the region — including the achievement of a two-state solution that provides for Israel’s security and the Palestinians’ legitimate national aspirations.

Michael A. Cohen is a fellow at the Century Foundation. Matthew Duss is the president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace.

The United States and Israel at a Crossroads

By Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP)
February 19, 201

Read the full report here.

Executive Summary

Today, the U.S-Israel bilateral relationship stands at a crossroads.

Increasingly the national interests of the two countries – and in particular its current leaders — are diverging. While the latest crisis is focused on the nuclear talks with Iran, on no issue does this divide have greater long-term implications for U.S. interests in the region than the creation of two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security. For the United States, this is an imperative; for the current Israeli government it is not.

It is increasingly evident that Prime Minister Netanyahu and his right-wing allies are preparing for a one-state future, in which Israel controls the entire territory between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River and the Palestinians are provided a highly attenuated form of “autonomy.” Among Palestinians there is a growing sense of pessimism that their national aspirations will ever be realized and a belief that negotiations with Israel are pointless.

In our new report, The United States and Israel at a Crossroads, we argue that this state of affairs will soon create an untenable situation for the United States – caught between its traditional support for Israel and the pursuit of policies by the Israeli government that will leave the U.S. isolated in the Middle East and among the broader international community. This dynamic will only accelerate if Prime Minister Netanyahu is asked to form the next Israeli government after national parliamentary elections in mid-March.

For that reason, the United States must take concerted action to achieve a permanent and realistic two-state solution. That effort must begin soon, with steps that make clear to the Israeli people between now and Election Day, the consequences of maintaining the status quo. A change of leadership in Israel that leads to a government that shares an interest in ending the Arab-Israeli conflict in a fair, secure and equitable manner is very much in America’s direct national security interests.

Based on interviews conducted over the past few years in Jerusalem, Ramallah, Tel Aviv and Washington, as well as a poll commissioned, last month, by the Foundation for Middle East Peace in conjunction with the Israeli firm New Wave Research, we believe that the White House may be pushing against an open door.

Our polling indicates that:

●Israelis overwhelmingly believe that their country depends on U.S. support.

● Fifty percent believe there is a growing crisis in the U.S.-Israel relationship

● Approximately two-thirds say that improving the bilateral relationship will play a role in how they vote

● A plurality agrees that another term as Prime Minister for Netanyahu will see a further deterioration in relations, and that center-left parties are more likely to improve the situation.

There is an opportunity for the United States to sharpen the choice facing Israeli voters – and on two issues in particular, settlements and the peace process.

Our polling found:

● Three-quarters of Israelis say it is important that the party they support in March makes progress in talks with the Palestinians.

● This includes 60 percent of self-identified center-right voters.

● These numbers represent a significant change from the last Israeli election three years ago, when the diplomatic process was a lesser priority

● A strong majority of Israelis would support the Obama Administration releasing its own framework for a final status agreement.

Such a step by the United States would lend implicit support to parties whom Israelis overwhelmingly believe would be more likely to move forward with negotiations – while also shining a light on the inflexibility of the Netanyahu government.

In addition, while we found that Israelis are generally wary of direct U.S. pressure on Israel, the issue of settlements is an exception.

●Half of those we polled said settlement expansion was undermining Israel’s legitimacy and its security.

● Our findings indicate that Israelis are as likely to blame Israel as they are to blame the United States if the latter escalated its criticism of Israel’s settlement policies.

● Based on our research, we think it is likely that if the U.S. were to support, or abstain from, a UN Security Council Resolution that condemned Israeli settlement expansion, it could have a decisive impact on many persuadable Israeli voters.

Finally, we found little evidence that direct U.S. pressure, if applied carefully, would create a pro-Netanyahu backlash.

● Forty-six percent of centrist voters that we polled said that if the U.S. were to follow the above course of action they’d be more inclined to vote for a centrist or left-wing party – and an equal number said it would have no effect at all.

● Less than 10 percent said it would make them more inclined to vote for a right-wing party.

While the impact of any U.S. effort would likely be limited, even the shift of just a handful seats from right to left could determine who is asked to form the next government.